{"project": "A maintained general non-CDM Boltzmann-code framework", "theme": "Boltzmann-code extension (CLASS/CAMB/ETHOS)", "deliverable": "A supported CLASS/ETHOS-style branch implementing interacting, decaying, warm, mixed and self-interacting species behind one interface, with standardized transfer-function output that downstream structure-formation pipelines can consume.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "data", "derivation", "emulator", "likelihood", "other", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 10047.5, "impact_structure_formation": 5213.5, "cost": 3.7, "value_ratio": 2715.5, "n_models": 556, "n_models_structure_formation": 262, "n_gaps": 639, "effort_counts": {"medium": 484, "large": 71, "small": 80, "major_program": 4}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 381, "degrades_precision": 198, "blocks_all_observables": 35, "minor": 22, "unknown": 3}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1803_05650_decaying_warm_majoron_dm_v1", "model_name": "Decaying warm majoron dark matter", "arxiv": "1803.05650", "score": 52.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public Boltzmann-solver setup treats a keV-scale warm majoron with its thermal free-streaming distribution that also decays to relativistic neutrinos with tau_J of order 50 Gyr; the CLASS decaying-CDM module assumes cold parents, so the combined warm-plus-decaying linear evolution (T(k) and CMB spectra) cannot currently be computed.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend CLASS by combining its non-cold-dark-matter (ncdm) sector with the decaying-dark-matter module: give the ncdm species a decay term sourcing massless neutrino dark radiation, parameterized by (m_J, tau_J, initial phase-space distribution), and validate against the paper's N-body initial conditions and the tau_J > 50 Gyr CMB benchmark."}, {"model_id": "1912_05563_nonthermal_subkev_light_dark_matter_fraction_v1", "model_name": "Nonthermal sub-keV light dark matter fraction from radiative decays", "arxiv": "1912.05563", "score": 52.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The momentum distribution of the boosted decay-produced sub-keV component (born relativistic, redshifting through radiation domination) has not been derived in a form usable by a Boltzmann solver, so the mixed cold+hot transfer function for this scenario cannot be computed.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the analytic f(q) for two-body decay production during radiation domination as a function of tau and m_parent/m_DM, tabulate it into the CLASS ncdm module alongside a dominant CDM component, and compute the mixed transfer function and Delta N_eff self-consistently."}, {"model_id": "1911_04703_gauged_bl_dirac_neutrino_two_component_dm_v1", "model_name": "Gauged B-L Dirac-neutrino two-component fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "1911.04703", "score": 48.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The Delta N_eff constraint is applied only as the quoted static bound Delta N_eff <= 0.285 with an analytic decoupling estimate; no pipeline folds the g_BL- and M_ZBL-dependent right-handed-neutrino decoupling into a current CMB+BBN likelihood, which the card flags as a leading constraint that was not updated.", "proposed_resolution": "Compute T_dec(g_BL, M_ZBL) with momentum-averaged collision rates, map to Delta N_eff via the entropy-dilution relation, and evaluate against the Planck 2018 + BAO (and forecast CMB-S4) N_eff posterior in CLASS/MontePython to replace the fixed 0.285 cut."}, {"model_id": "2204_08484_scalar_dark_fifth_force_dm_v1", "model_name": "Scalar dark matter with a long-range dark fifth force", "arxiv": "2204.08484", "score": 46, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The modified CLASS implementing the dark fifth-force background (H(z), rho_dm(z), s(z)) and linear perturbations (relative DM-baryon density and velocity modes) is not publicly released, so the whole CMB+BAO pipeline cannot be rerun or extended by others.", "proposed_resolution": "Obtain or reimplement the fifth-force patch in public CLASS: add the scalar-field background with m_chi(s) coupling and beta, m_s/H_0 parameters plus the coupled DM-baryon perturbation equations, and validate against the published beta < 0.011 (Planck) and beta < 0.0054 (Planck+BAO) bounds."}, {"model_id": "1806_10608_generalized_ula_cosmological_field_v1", "model_name": "Generalized ultra-light axion-like cosmological field", "arxiv": "1806.10608", "score": 46, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The generalized effective-fluid approximation (w(a), c_s^2(k,a)) for n=2 and n=3 potentials is uncalibrated against exact Klein-Gordon evolution near the transition redshift z_c at the precision of current CMB data, so f_zc posteriors carry an unquantified approximation error.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement exact linear Klein-Gordon evolution (or a Passaglia-Hu-style accurate effective-fluid scheme) alongside the fluid module in AxiCLASS/modified CLASS for n=1,2,3, map the C_ell and P(k) error as a function of z_c and n, and correct or bound the fluid-based constraints."}, {"model_id": "1803_09767_asymptotically_flat_coth_potential_unified_dark_sector_v1", "model_name": "Non-canonical asymptotically-flat coth-potential unified dark sector", "arxiv": "1803.09767", "score": 45.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No Boltzmann-code implementation exists for the non-canonical UDM scalar with L=X(X/M^4)^(alpha-1)-V(phi) and the asymptotically-flat coth potential: neither CLASS nor CAMB evolves the perturbations of a single field whose kinetic energy clusters as dark matter with c_s^2=(2 alpha-1)^-1 while its potential drives acceleration, so the transfer function and Jeans-scale viability test cannot be computed.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend CLASS with a k-essence/UDM module that takes the background solution for this potential and evolves the exact scalar perturbation equations (or, as a first pass, map the model onto CLASS's generalized-dark-matter fluid with w(a) from the background solve and constant c_s^2=(2 alpha-1)^-1), validating the pressureless large-alpha limit against the paper."}, {"model_id": "1803_09767_cascading_step_potential_unified_dark_sector_v1", "model_name": "Non-canonical cascading step-potential unified dark sector", "arxiv": "1803.09767", "score": 45.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No Boltzmann-code implementation exists for the non-canonical UDM scalar with L=X(X/M^4)^(alpha-1)-V(phi) and the cascading step potential: neither CLASS nor CAMB evolves the perturbations of a single field whose kinetic energy clusters as dark matter with c_s^2=(2 alpha-1)^-1 while the staircase potential drives (possibly transient) acceleration, so the transfer function and Jeans-scale viability test cannot be computed, and the potential's step transitions need careful numerical treatment.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend CLASS with a k-essence/UDM module that takes the background solution for this potential (with a smoothed parameterization of the vacuum-energy steps) and evolves the exact scalar perturbation equations, or as a first pass map the model onto CLASS's generalized-dark-matter fluid with w(a) from the background solve and constant c_s^2=(2 alpha-1)^-1, validating the pressureless large-alpha limit against the paper."}, {"model_id": "1803_09767_starobinsky_type_unified_dark_sector_v1", "model_name": "Non-canonical Starobinsky-type unified dark sector", "arxiv": "1803.09767", "score": 45.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public Boltzmann solver implements linear perturbations for the non-canonical unified dark sector L=X(X/M^4)^(alpha-1)-V(phi), whose effective sound speed c_s^2=(2 alpha-1)^-1 and Jeans scale set the clustering viability; CLASS/CAMB only offer constant-c_s fluids or canonical scalar fields.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend the CLASS scalar-field (scf) or fluid module to a general k-essence Lagrangian L(X,phi), passing the background-dependent c_s^2 and adiabatic/non-adiabatic pressure terms into the perturbation equations, and validate against the large-alpha analytic limit c_s^2=(2 alpha-1)^-1."}, {"model_id": "1806_08579_neutrino_portal_freeze_in_dm_v1", "model_name": "Neutrino portal freeze-in dark matter", "arxiv": "1806.08579", "score": 45.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public momentum-level Boltzmann solver covers neutrino-portal freeze-in with both resonant (on-shell N decay) and non-resonant (off-shell N) production, so the nonthermal f(p) that both the relic density and the free-streaming constraint depend on cannot be recomputed outside the authors' private code.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement (or obtain release of) an unintegrated Boltzmann solver for the L h -> N -> chi phi chain with resonant and 2-to-2 off-shell contributions, outputting tabulated f(q) in the CLASS ncdm psd-file format; extending micrOMEGAs' freeze-in module to momentum level is a natural host."}, {"model_id": "2005_11889_neutrino_nugget_kination_ede_v1", "model_name": "Early mass-varying sterile-neutrino nugget dark matter with kination-diluted scalar EDE", "arxiv": "2005.11889", "score": 44, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public Boltzmann-code implementation of the neutrino-scalar EDE fluid with a nugget-formation transition into a kination-like (w=1) scalar phase; the paper's modified CLASS patch (w(z), c_s^2(z) GDM transition plus kination dilution) is private with no repository.", "proposed_resolution": "Reimplement the transition in public CLASS as a generalized-dark-matter component with parametrized w(z) and c_s^2(z) switching from w=1/3-like EDE to w=1 kination at z_F (analogous to existing public EDE branches such as CLASS_EDE/AxiCLASS), release it with MontePython parameter files, and validate against the paper's quoted Omega_nuphi, z_F, and H0 best-fit values."}], "rank_impact": 1, "rank_value": 2, "rank_structure_formation": 2}
{"project": "A community model-implementation library for relic-abundance solvers", "theme": "Relic-abundance solver extension (micrOMEGAs/MadDM/DarkSUSY)", "deliverable": "A curated, validated library of FeynRules/CalcHEP model files plus solver extensions (freeze-in, co-annihilation, resonances, non-standard histories) so registry models get relic densities from micrOMEGAs/MadDM instead of bespoke by-hand estimates.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "data", "derivation", "likelihood", "other", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 9952.5, "impact_structure_formation": 1788.1, "cost": 3.0, "value_ratio": 3317.5, "n_models": 660, "n_models_structure_formation": 101, "n_gaps": 762, "effort_counts": {"medium": 449, "small": 256, "large": 53, "major_program": 4}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 351, "minor": 42, "degrades_precision": 332, "blocks_all_observables": 37}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1912_09904_cosmic_ray_boosted_gidm_spin2_v1", "model_name": "Cosmic-ray boosted sub-GeV gravitationally interacting dark matter with a spin-2 mediator", "arxiv": "1912.09904", "score": 47.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The momentum-dependent spin-2 (KK graviton) CR-DM scattering cross section and boosted-flux calculation exist only as a private modification of DarkSUSY; no public code computes dPhi_chi/dT_chi and its Earth attenuation for the G^{mu nu}T_{mu nu} coupling with its strong q^2 dependence.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend the public DarkSUSY CRDM module with the spin-2 mediator differential cross section d(sigma)/dT for CR protons/helium on chi (parameterized by m_chi, m_G, c_SM/Lambda, c_DM/Lambda) and thread the same momentum dependence through the layered-Earth attenuation solver, validating against the paper's O(1e-35) cm^2 benchmark reach."}, {"model_id": "1805_03203_two_state_inelastic_self_interacting_dm_v1", "model_name": "Two-state inelastic self-interacting dark matter", "arxiv": "1805.03203", "score": 46.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The cosmological excited-state abundance f_excited is assumed (near 1) rather than computed: the card flags excited-state survival under early-universe down-scattering as an unsolved model-building requirement, leaving the simulations' key initial condition uncalculated.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive and solve the coupled Boltzmann network for psi1/psi2 with the Yukawa-mediated up/down-scattering and annihilation rates, tracking f_excited(z) from the nonthermal parent-decay production through recombination, to map (Delta/m_chi, alpha, m_mediator, production history) onto the simulation initial state fractions."}, {"model_id": "1911_03176_inelastic_dark_matter_dark_photon_v1", "model_name": "Inelastic dark matter with a dark photon mediator", "arxiv": "1911.03176", "score": 45.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The FeynRules/CalcHEP model file for the two-state Majorana inelastic dark matter with kinetically mixed dark photon is not confirmed public, blocking off-the-shelf reproduction of the micrOMEGAs coannihilation thermal targets over (m_chi1, Delta, m_A', epsilon, alpha_D).", "proposed_resolution": "Release or re-derive the FeynRules v2.3.32 iDM implementation, export CalcHEP files for micrOMEGAs v5.0.6, and validate against the paper's benchmark thermal targets at m_A'/m_chi1 = 2.5 and 3 with Delta = 0.1 m_chi1."}, {"model_id": "2404_05704_type_i_non_degenerate_2hdma_dm_v1", "model_name": "Type-I non-degenerate 2HDM+a dark matter benchmark model", "arxiv": "2404.05704", "score": 42, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The loop-induced spin-independent direct-detection cross section for pseudoscalar-mediated Dirac DM in the type-I 2HDM+a is not implemented in any tool linked from the card, so the direct-detection leg of the complementarity observable cannot be evaluated numerically.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive (or adapt from the existing 2HDM+a loop literature) the one-loop SI scattering amplitude for the type-I Yukawa structure, implement it as a micrOMEGAs/MadDM extension for the Pseudoscalar_2HDMI model, and couple the output to DDCalc-style experimental likelihoods."}, {"model_id": "2001_01846_pq_dirac_neutrino_scalar_wimp_axion_v1", "model_name": "PQ Dirac-neutrino model with scalar WIMP and axion dark matter", "arxiv": "2001.01846", "score": 41.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public micrOMEGAs/CalcHEP (or equivalent) implementation of the mixed singlet-doublet scalar sector of this one-loop PQ Dirac-neutrino model exists, so the scalar WIMP freeze-out and sigma_SI cannot be computed beyond the paper's limiting-case benchmarks.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the eta_u-singlet scalar sector (mass eigenstates, quartic couplings, Higgs and gauge interactions) in FeynRules, export to CalcHEP, and run micrOMEGAs for Omega_S h^2 and sigma_SI across the singlet-doublet mixing plane."}, {"model_id": "2301_02514_singlet_doublet_freeze_in_fast_expansion_dm_v1", "model_name": "Singlet-doublet freeze-in dark matter in fast-expansion cosmology", "arxiv": "2301.02514", "score": 41, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No freeze-in relic-abundance solver implements this model's non-standard fast-expansion pre-BBN cosmology; the required Boltzmann integration with a modified H(T) (parameters n, T_r) and decays of thermalized doublet-like states is not available in any public code identified by the card.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend the micrOMEGAs freeze-in module (or a standalone Boltzmann script) to accept a user-defined H(T) = H_std (T/T_r)^(n/2) fast-expansion history, and validate against the relic-density contours in the primary paper benchmarks."}, {"model_id": "1911_03398_resonant_sterile_neutrino_nonstandard_cosmology_v1", "model_name": "Resonantly produced sterile neutrino dark matter in non-standard pre-BBN cosmology", "arxiv": "1911.03398", "score": 41, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "X-ray line and DEBRA diffuse-background decay limits are available only as published exclusion curves for the standard-cosmology relic density; no packaged likelihood exists that rescales the bounds by the model's cosmology-dependent sterile density Omega_s/Omega_DM across targets.", "proposed_resolution": "Assemble published X-ray (galaxy, cluster, blank-sky) and DEBRA limits into a single interpolable likelihood in (m_s, sin^2(2theta)) with an explicit linear rescaling by the produced density fraction, documenting target column-density assumptions so bounds update consistently as production changes."}, {"model_id": "1910_10160_conformal_freeze_in_quark_portal_v1", "model_name": "Conformal freeze-in quark-portal dark matter", "arxiv": "1910.10160", "score": 39.7, "severity": "minor", "description": "No recast pipeline maps the quark-portal CFT operator (lambda_CFT, Lambda_CFT, d) onto the listed null channels — CMB energy injection, stellar cooling, meson decays, and collider unparticle searches — for couplings above the freeze-in benchmark.", "proposed_resolution": "Assemble a screening recast combining existing unparticle collider limits, stellar-cooling rate formulas, and ExoCLASS-style CMB energy-injection constraints, parameterized by (lambda_CFT, Lambda_CFT, d), validated against the paper's benchmark consistency statement."}, {"model_id": "1910_09771_2hdm_a_majorana_v1", "model_name": "Two-Higgs-doublet plus pseudoscalar mediator Majorana dark matter", "arxiv": "1910.09771", "score": 39.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public code implements the one- and two-loop matching of the 2HDM+a pseudoscalar interactions onto nucleon scalar and gluon operators, which produces the leading (loop-induced) spin-independent signal since the tree-level rate is momentum suppressed; the model's critical direct-detection observable therefore cannot be computed with existing packages like micrOMEGAs, which stop at tree level for this structure.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the published one- and two-loop Wilson-coefficient formulas (from the primary paper and the pseudoscalar-mediator matching literature, e.g. 1810.01039) as a module feeding DirectDM/DDCalc, validated against the paper's maximum sigma_SI near 5e-47 cm^2 at m_A = 600 GeV."}, {"model_id": "1912_03695_susy_b_minus_l_neutralino_lsp_v1", "model_name": "Supersymmetric B-L neutralino LSP dark matter with metastable cosmic strings", "arxiv": "1912.03695", "score": 39.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public code couples the B-L hybrid-inflation dynamics, tachyonic preheating, heavy-neutrino leptogenesis, B-L-Higgs-to-gravitino decays, and thermal plus nonthermal neutralino production into one scan, so the viable window (v_B-L = 3.0-5.8e15 GeV, m_3/2 = 10 TeV-10 PeV, x about 0.4) cannot be reproduced or extended.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a scan pipeline that combines micrOMEGAs or DarkSUSY for the thermal higgsino/wino relic component with a set of coupled Boltzmann equations for reheating, gravitino production, and B-L Higgs decays (following the paper's equations), validated by recovering the quoted viable window."}], "rank_impact": 2, "rank_value": 1, "rank_structure_formation": 5}
{"project": "A unified indirect-detection likelihood suite", "theme": "Indirect-detection likelihood (γ-ray / cosmic-ray / ν)", "deliverable": "One package wrapping Fermi dwarf-spheroidal, Galactic-center, AMS-02 antiproton/positron and neutrino-telescope likelihoods with user-supplied annihilation/decay spectra, replacing per-paper digitized limits.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "data", "derivation", "likelihood", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 8886.4, "impact_structure_formation": 1824.0, "cost": 3.5, "value_ratio": 2539.0, "n_models": 578, "n_models_structure_formation": 104, "n_gaps": 709, "effort_counts": {"small": 147, "medium": 480, "large": 77, "major_program": 5}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 380, "degrades_precision": 264, "minor": 45, "blocks_all_observables": 20}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1911_04703_gauged_bl_dirac_neutrino_two_component_dm_v1", "model_name": "Gauged B-L Dirac-neutrino two-component fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "1911.04703", "score": 48.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public model implementation exists for this anomaly-free B-L variant: the fractional-charge chiral fermion sector, extended scalar potential, and two-component (psi_1, psi_2) coupled freeze-out with conversion annihilation must be re-encoded before micrOMEGAs can reproduce the paper's relic and direct-detection numbers.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the charge assignments, scalar sector, and Yukawa structure in FeynRules, export CalcHEP files, and run micrOMEGAs 5 in two-DM-component mode including psi_2 psi_2 -> psi_1 psi_1 conversion, validating against the paper's Omega_psi1 + Omega_psi2 = 0.120 benchmark regions."}, {"model_id": "1909_07706_dark_fermion_relaxion_wdm_v1", "model_name": "Dark-fermion-production relaxion warm dark matter", "arxiv": "1909.07706", "score": 48.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The dark fermion's post-dilution phase-space distribution f(p) is not derived: the card records only an approximate thermal form, so the transfer-function cutoff rests on a thermal-equivalent m_WDM mapping the paper itself flags as approximate, and no model-specific transfer function exists.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive f(p) for a fermion decoupling relativistically at T_d with g_star(T_d) and subsequent entropy dilution by factor S (a rescaled Fermi-Dirac spectrum with shifted temperature), feed it to CLASS as a non-cold-DM species, and tabulate the resulting transfer function and half-mode scale over (m_psi, T_d, S)."}, {"model_id": "1807_02530_b3_dfsz_axion_axino_dm_v1", "model_name": "Baryon-triality DFSZ axion and light-axino dark matter model", "arxiv": "1807.02530", "score": 45, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public likelihood exists for X-ray/gamma-ray line limits on a decaying keV axino that is only a fraction of the dark matter; the card notes limits must be rescaled by the axino fraction and records likelihood_available: no for con_axino_xray_gamma.", "proposed_resolution": "Digitize published X-ray line (e.g. NuSTAR/XMM blank-sky) and soft gamma-ray decaying-DM lifetime curves, wrap them as a lifetime-versus-mass likelihood with an explicit Omega_axino/Omega_DM rescaling parameter, and connect it to the analytic (m_axino, lambda, lambda_prime, f_a) to lifetime map."}, {"model_id": "1804_04135_right_handed_neutrino_hot_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Right-handed neutrino hot dark matter subcomponent in an SU(2)_V W-prime model", "arxiv": "1804.04135", "score": 44.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No numerical flavor/EWP/collider recast exists for the W-prime SU(2)_V sector that fixes the right-handed-neutrino parameters; the R_D(*), FCNC, EWP, and direct-search constraints are only described qualitatively (likelihood_available 'no', recasting_needed 'yes').", "proposed_resolution": "Encode the C_RR^V operator and right-handed mixing structure in a global flavor-fit package (e.g. extend flavio/smelli with the light-nu_R final state) and recast LHC W-prime and vector-like fermion searches for the model's benchmark spectra."}, {"model_id": "2204_13554_uv_freeze_in_baryogenesis_dirac_fermion_dm_v1", "model_name": "UV freeze-in baryogenesis with Dirac fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "2204.13554", "score": 41, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public code solves the coupled freeze-in plus CP-violating scattering asymmetry Boltzmann equations for the dimension-6 Dirac-fermion model with vector-like leptons; the paper's numerical scans are custom and unreleased, so Y_B and the viable Lambda-T_RH band cannot be recomputed.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the paper's coupled yield and B-L asymmetry equations (dimension-6 collision terms, tree-loop interference CP source, sphaleron conversion) in a released standalone solver, e.g. a Python/ULYSSES-style momentum-averaged Boltzmann code validated against the paper's benchmark Lambda-T_RH scaling."}, {"model_id": "2305_06364_twin_sterile_neutrino_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Twin sterile neutrino dark matter", "arxiv": "2305.06364", "score": 41, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The model-specific visible branching fraction Br(N_B -> SM photons + ...) as a function of the inter-sector mixing M_AB has not been computed, so the suppressed X-ray/gamma-ray line flux cannot be quantitatively recast against NuSTAR-style line limits.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the loop-induced N_B -> nu gamma (SM) radiative decay rate through the M_AB sterile-mixing portal in the seesaw limit, tabulate the visible branching over (M_NB, M_AB, mixing angles), and insert it into the standard sterile-neutrino line-flux formula against published line-search limit tables."}, {"model_id": "2304_12336_thermal_dark_matter_kination_v1", "model_name": "Thermal dark matter freeze-out during kination", "arxiv": "2304.12336", "score": 40, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No packaged likelihood pipeline connects the kination-enhanced microhalo boost factor to Fermi-LAT dwarf-spheroidal, H.E.S.S. Galactic Center, and isotropic gamma-ray background limits; the constraint currently requires a manual channel-by-channel recast through the boost factor.", "proposed_resolution": "Wire the microhalo-models boost output into the released Fermi-LAT dwarf-spheroidal bin-by-bin likelihoods and published H.E.S.S. limit curves, with annihilation spectra per channel from PPPC4DMID or HDMSpectra, exposing (m_DM, <sigma v>, T_KR, T_kd, channel) as inputs."}, {"model_id": "1308_6630_331_wimpy_dark_radiation_v1", "model_name": "331 WIMPy dark radiation model", "arxiv": "1308.6630", "score": 40, "severity": "minor", "description": "No public micrOMEGAs/CalcHEP model file for the 3-3-1LHN scalar WIMP sector is identified in the card, so the thermal relic input to the route cannot be reproduced without re-implementing the model.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the 3-3-1LHN Lagrangian (scalar WIMP, N_R fermions, 3-3-1 gauge and scalar sectors) in FeynRules/SARAH and export a CalcHEP model file for micrOMEGAs freeze-out computation."}, {"model_id": "1703_06085_numsm_fnv_leptogenesis_sterile_dm_v1", "model_name": "nuMSM sterile-neutrino dark matter with fermion-number-violating leptogenesis effects", "arxiv": "1703.06085", "score": 40, "severity": "blocks_all_observables", "description": "No public numerical solver exists for the three-HNL finite-temperature density-matrix kinetic equations including the fermion-number-violating rates; the primary paper derives the equations but defers the full numerical produced-asymmetry scan.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the paper's FNV-extended density-matrix equations in a numerical HNL kinetics code (extending an existing low-scale leptogenesis solver such as AMIQS-style density-matrix codes), validating against the zero-FNV limit and asymmetry-conservation checks named in the route's validation tests."}, {"model_id": "1803_03644_late_sommerfeld_dm_to_dark_radiation_v1", "model_name": "Late Sommerfeld-enhanced dark-matter conversion to dark radiation", "arxiv": "1803.03644", "score": 40.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The perturbation treatment is only a generic parameterization: the card notes perturbations are model dependent beyond the background, and the conversion source term has not been derived from the actual Sommerfeld-enhanced annihilation rate of the Dirac-fermion/light-vector model.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the conversion rate Gamma(z) and its perturbation from the velocity-averaged Sommerfeld-enhanced cross section of the specific model, mapping (m_chi, m_med, alpha, T_kd) onto the phenomenological (zeta, a_t) parameters, and encode the mapping in the Boltzmann implementation."}], "rank_impact": 3, "rank_value": 3, "rank_structure_formation": 4}
{"project": "A reusable Lyman-α forest likelihood for non-CDM cosmologies", "theme": "Lyman-α forest modeling & likelihood", "deliverable": "A public likelihood package that takes an arbitrary suppressed or oscillatory linear power spectrum (WDM-like, interacting, mixed, fuzzy) and returns constraints from eBOSS/DESI and high-resolution flux-power data, with an emulator-based nonlinear mapping so users never rerun hydrodynamical simulations.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "derivation", "emulator", "likelihood", "simulation", "tool"], "impact": 6693.6, "impact_structure_formation": 5715.9, "cost": 4.1, "value_ratio": 1632.6, "n_models": 416, "n_models_structure_formation": 338, "n_gaps": 437, "effort_counts": {"medium": 346, "large": 70, "small": 20, "major_program": 1}, "severity_counts": {"degrades_precision": 223, "blocks_key_observables": 196, "minor": 14, "unknown": 2, "blocks_all_observables": 2}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1912_05563_nonthermal_subkev_light_dark_matter_fraction_v1", "model_name": "Nonthermal sub-keV light dark matter fraction from radiative decays", "arxiv": "1912.05563", "score": 52.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The structure-formation bound f < 0.01 is inferred from generic mixed cold/hot arguments rather than from a dedicated likelihood: no Lyman-alpha, CMB, or sigma8 likelihood has been run against this model's boosted-subcomponent transfer function, so the actual upper limit on f versus m_DM and tau is uncalibrated.", "proposed_resolution": "Recast an existing Lyman-alpha forest likelihood or emulator (e.g. the hydrodynamical-simulation-calibrated WDM/mixed-DM chains) plus Planck CMB data onto the mixed transfer functions from gap_2, producing f(m_DM, tau) exclusion contours."}, {"model_id": "1909_07706_dark_fermion_relaxion_wdm_v1", "model_name": "Dark-fermion-production relaxion warm dark matter", "arxiv": "1909.07706", "score": 48.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No public Lyman-alpha likelihood applies to this model's mixed case: the constraint is imposed only as the thermal-relic 5-5.3 keV m_WDM bound, which does not cover a partial warm fraction f_WDM < 1 or a diluted non-standard spectrum.", "proposed_resolution": "Recast the model through an existing Lyman-alpha flux-power emulator/likelihood built for mixed cold-plus-warm dark matter, parameterized by (m_WDM_equivalent, f_WDM), using the transfer functions from the derived f(p) rather than the pure-thermal mapping."}, {"model_id": "1805_08112_quartic_fuzzy_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Fuzzy dark matter with repulsive quartic self-interaction", "arxiv": "1805.08112", "score": 46, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No nonlinear structure-formation calibration exists for repulsive quartic self-interacting fuzzy dark matter: the paper's bound uses linear observables only, and the card records unknown halo/subhalo mass-function effects with simulation_calibrated no, so nonlinear probes (Lyman-alpha, subhalo counts, solitonic cores with repulsive pressure) cannot be exploited.", "proposed_resolution": "Run Schrodinger-Poisson (or Gross-Pitaevskii-Poisson, including the quartic term) simulations over a grid of (m, lambda) to calibrate the halo mass function, soliton-halo relation, and small-scale power suppression, and fit a transfer-function/HMF parameterization usable by Lyman-alpha emulators and subhalo likelihoods."}, {"model_id": "1806_08579_neutrino_portal_freeze_in_dm_v1", "model_name": "Neutrino portal freeze-in dark matter", "arxiv": "1806.08579", "score": 45.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No ready Lyman-alpha likelihood accepts the nonthermal freeze-in momentum distribution directly; the card notes the thermal-WDM template can misestimate the bound, and the exact transfer-function-to-likelihood mapping was not reproduced.", "proposed_resolution": "Run the tabulated f(p) through CLASS ncdm to obtain T(k), then apply a shape-based Lyman-alpha recast (area criterion or the Murgia et al. alpha-beta-gamma parameterization with the MIKE/HIRES+XQ-100 likelihood) instead of the half-mode thermal-WDM mapping."}, {"model_id": "1807_02530_b3_dfsz_axion_axino_dm_v1", "model_name": "Baryon-triality DFSZ axion and light-axino dark matter model", "arxiv": "1807.02530", "score": 45, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "Structure-formation constraints (Lyman-alpha, MW satellites) are calibrated for fully thermal WDM, not for a mixed cold-axion plus subdominant nonthermal warm-axino cosmology, so no direct likelihood exists for the warm-fraction versus axino-mass plane.", "proposed_resolution": "Map the mixed-DM transfer functions from CLASS onto existing mixed cold+warm Lyman-alpha analyses (fraction-versus-mass exclusion surfaces) or re-run an existing Lyman-alpha flux-power emulator on the suppressed power spectra, releasing the result as a (f_warm, m_axino) likelihood."}, {"model_id": "2205_12983_ultra_light_pion_baryon_wimpzilla_v1", "model_name": "Ultra-Light Pion and Baryon WIMPzilla dark matter", "arxiv": "2205.12983", "score": 45, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The ULP linear transfer function is not computed (transfer_function_shape unknown), so the scale of small-scale power suppression and its consistency with existing ULDM structure bounds cannot be checked for the three-pion system.", "proposed_resolution": "Compute the linear perturbation evolution of the three oscillating pion fields with axionCAMB or the CLASS scalar-field module, extract the half-mode scale versus (m_pi, F_pi), and map onto published Lyman-alpha and subhalo ULDM mass bounds."}, {"model_id": "1803_01249_light_radion_freeze_in_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Light radion freeze-in dark matter in an RS/SBSI model", "arxiv": "1803.01249", "score": 44.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No Boltzmann/transfer-function pipeline exists for a mixed cold-plus-hot radion component, which is needed to turn the Lyman-alpha bound on the allowed hot fraction into a quantitative constraint on the freeze-in radion abundance.", "proposed_resolution": "Feed the derived f(q) into CLASS as a non-cold dark-matter (ncdm) species with a cold CDM remainder, compute the suppressed transfer function, and compare against existing mixed cold+hot dark-matter Lyman-alpha fraction limits or a Lyman-alpha flux-power emulator."}, {"model_id": "2006_09906_kev_gravitino_bino_decay_gmsb_v1", "model_name": "keV gravitino dark matter with a nonthermal bino-decay component", "arxiv": "2006.09906", "score": 44, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The mixed cold(diluted-thermal)+warm(bino-decay) gravitino scenario is confronted with structure data only through the crude exp(-4.9 f) matter-power proxy; no pipeline computes the nonthermal gravitino phase-space distribution from late bino decay, feeds it through a Boltzmann code, and evaluates a Lyman-alpha/CMB/LSS likelihood (which would also give the actual Delta_N_eff and Hubble-tension impact).", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the bino-decay gravitino distribution function analytically, implement it as a custom ncdm species (with the diluted thermal component) in CLASS, and recast the resulting linear power spectra against mixed cold+warm DM Lyman-alpha bounds (e.g. the published WDM-fraction likelihoods or a Lyman-alpha flux emulator) plus Planck for Delta_N_eff."}, {"model_id": "1910_04901_self_interacting_neutrino_dw_sterile_dm_v1", "model_name": "Dodelson-Widrow sterile neutrino dark matter with active-neutrino self-interactions", "arxiv": "1910.04901", "score": 43, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The case-dependent nonthermal f_s(x,z) spectra (warmer or cooler than thermal) have not been propagated to a linear transfer function, so Lyman-alpha and small-scale-structure limits derived for thermal WDM or standard-DW spectra cannot be rigorously applied to this model's momentum distributions.", "proposed_resolution": "Feed the solver's f_s spectra into CLASS's ncdm module with arbitrary distribution functions to compute T(k) across the parameter band, then recast Lyman-alpha flux-power constraints (via existing WDM/nu-s emulator mappings on the half-mode scale) instead of thermal-equivalent-mass rules of thumb."}, {"model_id": "1412_1592_nrp_sterile_neutrino_mixed_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Non-resonantly produced sterile-neutrino mixed dark matter", "arxiv": "1412.1592", "score": 42, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No Lyman-alpha forest likelihood or flux-power emulator handles mixed cold+warm transfer functions directly; current analyses are built for CDM or pure thermal WDM, and the card explicitly warns that transferring thermal-WDM Lyman-alpha bounds to mixed dark matter is misleading.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a Lyman-alpha flux-power emulator with a two-parameter suppression template (cutoff scale and plateau depth set by M_s and r_warm), validated against a small set of hydrodynamical simulations with mixed initial conditions, and expose it as a public likelihood with thermal-history nuisance parameters."}], "rank_impact": 4, "rank_value": 4, "rank_structure_formation": 1}
{"project": "A public wave-dark-matter solver suite", "theme": "Axion / fuzzy-DM field solver", "deliverable": "Maintained Schrödinger–Poisson / axion-field solvers with soliton, minicluster and oscillon modules, calibrated scaling relations, and hooks to structure-formation observables.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "data", "derivation", "emulator", "likelihood", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 4791.4, "impact_structure_formation": 2026.7, "cost": 5.3, "value_ratio": 904.0, "n_models": 272, "n_models_structure_formation": 97, "n_gaps": 409, "effort_counts": {"medium": 203, "large": 124, "small": 74, "major_program": 8}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 190, "blocks_all_observables": 18, "degrades_precision": 183, "minor": 17, "unknown": 1}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1803_05650_decaying_warm_majoron_dm_v1", "model_name": "Decaying warm majoron dark matter", "arxiv": "1803.05650", "score": 52.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The nonthermal majoron phase-space distribution (from misalignment-like production or entropy-diluted scenarios mentioned in the paper) has not been derived, so all structure-formation predictions rest on the thermal-distribution assumption that the card marks as high extrapolation risk.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive f(q) for the paper's cited nonthermal production channels (freeze-in-like decoupling and entropy-dilution histories) analytically or with a momentum-dependent Boltzmann calculation, and feed the resulting distributions into the extended CLASS ncdm sector in place of the thermal ansatz."}, {"model_id": "1909_07706_dark_fermion_relaxion_wdm_v1", "model_name": "Dark-fermion-production relaxion warm dark matter", "arxiv": "1909.07706", "score": 48.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The entropy dilution factor S that rescues the factor-of-10^3 overabundance is a free multiplicative parameter with no specified entropy-injection sector, so the relic abundance prediction is not closed and BBN consistency of the dilution epoch cannot be checked.", "proposed_resolution": "Specify a concrete dilution mechanism (e.g. late decay of the companion relaxion-sector scalar before BBN), compute S from its mass, coupling, and decay temperature with standard entropy-injection Boltzmann equations, and propagate the associated heating of f(p) into the structure-formation step."}, {"model_id": "1805_08112_quartic_fuzzy_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Fuzzy dark matter with repulsive quartic self-interaction", "arxiv": "1805.08112", "score": 46, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The modified CLASS module implementing the quartic-FDM effective-fluid sound speed c_s^2(a,k) and the quartic-dominated (radiation-like) background phase is not publicly released; without it neither the matter-power cutoff nor the equality-shift observable can be recomputed or the lambda(m) bound updated with current data.", "proposed_resolution": "Reimplement the paper's averaged scalar-fluid treatment as a public CLASS extension (natural host: extend AxiCLASS's ultralight-axion fluid module with the lambda phi^4 correction to w(a) and c_s^2(a,k)), validate against the paper's quoted log10(lambda) = -91.86 + 4 log10(m/1e-22 eV) exclusion line, and couple it to MontePython/Cobaya with current Planck and LSS likelihoods."}, {"model_id": "1806_10608_generalized_ula_cosmological_field_v1", "model_name": "Generalized ultra-light axion-like cosmological field", "arxiv": "1806.10608", "score": 46, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No nonlinear matter-power prediction (simulation-calibrated fit or emulator) exists for the generalized-n ULA fluid, so galaxy-survey constraints on the axion fraction rely on linear theory plus untested bias/EFT modeling in the mildly nonlinear regime; the card marks simulation_calibrated as 'no'.", "proposed_resolution": "Run N-body simulations with the generalized ULA linear transfer functions as initial conditions (and quantum-pressure corrections where relevant), then build a small emulator or halofit-style correction for P_nl(k,z; n, z_c, f_zc) to plug into an EFT-of-LSS survey likelihood."}, {"model_id": "2205_12983_ultra_light_pion_baryon_wimpzilla_v1", "model_name": "Ultra-Light Pion and Baryon WIMPzilla dark matter", "arxiv": "2205.12983", "score": 45, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No detector-level signal model exists for the millicharged-pion and pi0-photon couplings; the paper defers resonant-detector and modified-electrodynamics forecasts to future work, so laboratory observability cannot be evaluated.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the g_pi_gamma and millicharge signal power in axion-haloscope and light-shining-through-wall setups, and recast existing haloscope/millicharge exclusion data onto the (epsilon, m_pi, F_pi) plane."}, {"model_id": "1807_02530_b3_dfsz_axion_axino_dm_v1", "model_name": "Baryon-triality DFSZ axion and light-axino dark matter model", "arxiv": "1807.02530", "score": 45, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The freeze-in axino momentum distribution f(p) from PQ-suppressed weak scattering production is not derived (the card records distribution_function_available: no), so the warm transfer cutoff and mixed-DM matter power cannot be computed beyond rough free-streaming estimates.", "proposed_resolution": "Solve the unintegrated freeze-in Boltzmann equation for axino production from MSSM scattering with PQ-suppressed couplings, tabulate f(p) over (m_axino, f_a, T_RH), and feed it to CLASS as an ncdm species alongside a cold axion fluid."}, {"model_id": "1803_01249_light_radion_freeze_in_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Light radion freeze-in dark matter in an RS/SBSI model", "arxiv": "1803.01249", "score": 44.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The nonthermal radion momentum distribution f(p) from proton-bath freeze-in is not specified, and the proposed BEC/condensate and UV-completion production mechanisms that could raise the abundance to the full dark-matter value are explicitly left to future work, so the cold-versus-hot classification and any full-abundance scenario cannot be evaluated.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the freeze-in phase-space distribution f(q) from the radion-nucleon production integral around T ~ 230 MeV via the unintegrated collision term, and work out the misalignment/BEC condensate abundance as a function of initial displacement and epsilon, giving a two-component (cold condensate + hot freeze-in) abundance formula."}, {"model_id": "2203_10100_inflationary_dark_photon_proca_stars_v1", "model_name": "Inflation-produced dark photon dark matter with Proca-star substructure", "arxiv": "2203.10100", "score": 43, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public Proca/vector Schroedinger-Poisson simulation pipeline exists that evolves inflation-seeded small-scale vector isocurvature perturbations through collapse into Proca-star solitons and compact halos; the paper's numerical simulations are not released, so soliton and compact-halo mass functions cannot be regenerated across (m, H_I).", "proposed_resolution": "Extend an existing public wave-dark-matter Schroedinger-Poisson solver (e.g. PyUltraLight, AxioNyx, or GAMER's fuzzy-DM module) to three vector field components with initial conditions drawn from the inflationary longitudinal-mode power spectrum, and release calibrated soliton and compact-halo mass functions versus m and H_I."}, {"model_id": "2311_02052_extreme_axion_cosine_fluid_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Extreme axion dark matter with cosine potential fluid modeling", "arxiv": "2311.02052", "score": 42, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The modified axionCAMB implementing the full cosine potential, extreme hilltop initial angles, the effective-sound-speed fluid switch, and the background lookup-table acceleration is described in the paper but not publicly released, so no one else can compute CMB or matter power spectra for extreme axions.", "proposed_resolution": "Obtain or reimplement the cosine-potential fluid treatment as a public axionCAMB (or CLASS) patch, including the shooting solver for f_a given (m_a, theta_i, Omega_a h^2) and validation against the paper's field-equation comparisons."}, {"model_id": "2001_01846_pq_dirac_neutrino_scalar_wimp_axion_v1", "model_name": "PQ Dirac-neutrino model with scalar WIMP and axion dark matter", "arxiv": "2001.01846", "score": 41.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The axion relic abundance from topological defects (strings/domain walls) in this DFSZ-like model is not computed, so the Omega_a h^2 versus f_a mapping — and hence the allowed scalar WIMP fraction — is only known in the misalignment-only limit.", "proposed_resolution": "Adopt published string-network simulation calibrations of axion emission and implement the model's post-inflationary scenarios in a public axion-abundance calculator (e.g. extend MiMeS with a defect-contribution parameterization) so the axion fraction can be scanned jointly with the scalar sector."}], "rank_impact": 5, "rank_value": 7, "rank_structure_formation": 3}
{"project": "An end-to-end primordial-black-hole pipeline", "theme": "PBH formation & abundance pipeline", "deliverable": "One pipeline from a primordial P(k) (or collapse mechanism) to an extended PBH mass function and current constraints (microlensing, CMB accretion, GW rates), replacing monochromatic by-hand estimates.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "data", "derivation", "likelihood", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 3123.7, "impact_structure_formation": 931.9, "cost": 5.1, "value_ratio": 612.5, "n_models": 176, "n_models_structure_formation": 48, "n_gaps": 316, "effort_counts": {"medium": 188, "small": 45, "large": 74, "major_program": 9}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 173, "minor": 11, "degrades_precision": 120, "blocks_all_observables": 12}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1911_13281_n_machos_v1", "model_name": "N MACHOs", "arxiv": "1911.13281", "score": 47, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "Microlensing and femtolensing constraints on N-MACHOs are proxied by monochromatic point-lens PBH limits; no likelihood exists that folds in the OGLE and Subaru/HSC survey detection efficiencies, finite-source and finite-lens-size effects, and an extended N-MACHO mass function in the 10^-16 to 10^-8 solar-mass window.", "proposed_resolution": "Build an event-rate likelihood from the published OGLE 5-year and Subaru/HSC M31 efficiency curves plus GRB femtolensing data, generalized to arbitrary lens mass functions and finite lens radii from the polytropic M-R relation, validated by recovering the published monochromatic PBH bounds."}, {"model_id": "1609_00208_hidden_sector_phase_transition_axion_minicluster_dm_v1", "model_name": "Hidden-sector phase-transition axion minicluster dark matter", "arxiv": "1609.00208", "score": 36, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No microlensing likelihood exists for extended AU-scale lenses in this scenario; point-MACHO limits are not directly applicable and survey efficiencies were never assembled.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a likelihood from published EROS/OGLE/HSC-Subaru microlensing survey efficiency functions with finite-size and extended-lens magnification corrections for the predicted (M_m, R_m, f_MC) population."}, {"model_id": "1804_07255_scalar_dm_clumps_angular_momentum_v1", "model_name": "Light scalar dark matter clumps with angular momentum", "arxiv": "1804.07255", "score": 36.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No microlensing event-rate calculator or likelihood handling extended (finite-size) clump lenses is available; published Subaru HSC limits assume pointlike lenses, and the card's compactness constraint says extended clumps weaken direct application of those limits.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a public HSC/OGLE microlensing event-rate code with finite-lens-size magnification for the angular-momentum-modified R_90(M, l) relation and standard-halo kinematics, producing exclusion curves in (M, R_90, halo fraction)."}, {"model_id": "2203_12405_cosmological_gauge_field_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Cosmological gauge field dark matter", "arxiv": "2203.12405", "score": 36, "severity": "minor", "description": "No likelihood or constraint mapping exists connecting the predicted CGF dark-star mass-radius population to observational compact-object data (microlensing, GW merger catalogs), so the dark-star branch of the route ends without any data comparison.", "proposed_resolution": "After unit verification, map the TOV mass-radius solutions onto existing compact-object constraint machinery: recast microlensing (OGLE/Subaru-HSC) and LIGO/Virgo subsolar or exotic-compact-object search limits as bounds on the CGF dark-star abundance fraction."}, {"model_id": "2004_14773_pbh_evaporated_ncdm_v1", "model_name": "Non-cold fermionic dark matter from primordial black hole evaporation", "arxiv": "2004.14773", "score": 36, "severity": "minor", "description": "No released pipeline connects the Hawking-emission spectrum and evaporation-history redshifting to the CLASS ncdm f(q) input; the paper's implementation is private, so the transfer-function route cannot be reproduced end to end.", "proposed_resolution": "Write and release a small converter that takes BlackHawk (or analytic) emission spectra, applies the radiation- vs PBH-dominated redshifting branches, and outputs a CLASS-ready tabulated psd file, validated against the paper's transfer-function fits."}, {"model_id": "1909_04053_early_matter_dominated_pbh_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Early matter-dominated primordial black hole dark matter with non-Gaussian clustering", "arxiv": "1909.04053", "score": 35.9, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The merger-rate implication of large-scale PBH clustering is only noted qualitatively; no forward model exists that maps the early-matter-domination clustering power P_PBH(k) into PBH binary formation and a LIGO/Virgo-comparable merger rate for this scenario.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the clustered-PBH binary formation rate by extending standard early-universe PBH binary formation calculations to include the non-Gaussian clustering enhancement (local density and tidal environments drawn from the C_2-enhanced correlation function), validated with small N-body realizations of clustered PBH initial conditions."}, {"model_id": "2205_11522_pbh_superradiance_heavy_scalar_dm_v1", "model_name": "Heavy scalar dark matter from primordial-black-hole superradiance", "arxiv": "2205.11522", "score": 35, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public code solves the coupled system of Kerr PBH mass, spin, superradiant bound-state occupation, and DM number density used by the paper; the dedicated superradiance solver is not released, and existing PBH codes (BlackHawk, FRISBHEE, ULYSSES) omit the superradiance channel entirely.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a public PBH-cosmology framework (FRISBHEE or the ULYSSES PBH modules, with BlackHawk-style Kerr greybody evolution) by adding the analytic superradiance rate equations for the dominant scalar bound levels, and validate against the paper's factor-of-few to factor-20 enhancement contours in (M_i, a_star, mu)."}, {"model_id": "2403_07333_generalized_no_scale_pbh_dm_v1", "model_name": "Generalized no-scale inflation with PBH dark matter", "arxiv": "2403.07333", "score": 35, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No integrated likelihood exists for the final comparison step: PBH abundance constraint compilations, the NANOGrav 15-year stochastic-GW likelihood, LISA/Taiji/TianQin-band sensitivities, and Planck/BICEP-Keck n_s/r bounds are not wired into a single pipeline that scores a given (alpha, potential-parameter) point.", "proposed_resolution": "Combine a public PBH-bounds compilation (PBHbounds-class), the PTArcade interface to the NANOGrav 15-year data, interferometer power-law-integrated sensitivity curves, and the Planck n_s/r constraint into one joint likelihood evaluated on the outputs of the Mukhanov-Sasaki plus SIGW pipeline."}, {"model_id": "2404_10340_halo_axion_star_qcd_axion_dm_v1", "model_name": "Halo axion-star QCD axion dark matter", "arxiv": "2404.10340", "score": 35, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No finite-size-lens microlensing recast pipeline exists that convolves the axion-star density profile (and its minihalo environment) with EROS/MACHO/OGLE/MOA event-selection efficiencies and finite-source effects to produce excluded dark-matter fractions as a function of M_AS and R_AS.", "proposed_resolution": "Build an extended-lens microlensing calculator that computes magnification light curves for the solved axion-star profiles, folds in published survey efficiency curves and cadences from EROS/MACHO/OGLE/MOA, and outputs an exclusion likelihood on the axion-star fraction; validate by recovering point-lens limits in the compact-radius limit."}, {"model_id": "2309_12258_pbh_sterile_neutrinogenesis_dm_v1", "model_name": "PBH sterile neutrinogenesis of sterile neutrino dark matter", "arxiv": "2309.12258", "score": 35, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The abundance calculation assumes a monochromatic PBH mass function and instantaneous evaporation; no implemented calculation handles extended mass functions and time-resolved evaporation for the sterile-neutrino yield and spectrum, which shifts both f_s and the warmness bound.", "proposed_resolution": "Use or extend a public PBH evaporation code (BlackHawk-style time-dependent greybody emission) coupled to a background Friedmann solver to integrate sterile-neutrino production over extended mass functions and non-instantaneous reheating, outputting f_s and f(p) directly."}], "rank_impact": 6, "rank_value": 9, "rank_structure_formation": 10}
{"project": "A collider and beam-dump recast library for DM benchmarks", "theme": "Collider / beam-dump recast", "deliverable": "Recast implementations (LHC, Belle II, fixed-target/beam-dump) of the registry's recurring signatures, with acceptances and likelihoods, in a CheckMATE/Contur-style framework.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "data", "derivation", "likelihood", "simulation", "tool"], "impact": 2972.1, "impact_structure_formation": 231.2, "cost": 3.2, "value_ratio": 928.8, "n_models": 233, "n_models_structure_formation": 17, "n_gaps": 240, "effort_counts": {"medium": 192, "small": 33, "large": 15}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 102, "degrades_precision": 105, "minor": 33}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1911_03176_inelastic_dark_matter_dark_photon_v1", "model_name": "Inelastic dark matter with a dark photon mediator", "arxiv": "1911.03176", "score": 45.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public detector-level likelihood or recast module exists for the BaBar monophoton acceptance or the Belle II displaced photon-plus-dilepton/hadron vertex search applied to long-lived chi_2 decays; exclusions depend on unpublished escape-probability, veto, and trigger assumptions.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the BaBar monophoton and Belle II displaced-vertex analyses as recast cards in a long-lived-particle framework (e.g. a MadGraph event chain with parameterized detector geometry, photon/veto acceptances, and displaced-vertex trigger efficiencies), and publish the resulting efficiency maps as reusable likelihoods over (epsilon, m_A', m_chi1, Delta, alpha_D, c tau_chi2)."}, {"model_id": "2404_05704_type_i_non_degenerate_2hdma_dm_v1", "model_name": "Type-I non-degenerate 2HDM+a dark matter benchmark model", "arxiv": "2404.05704", "score": 42, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No validated LHC recast exists for the non-degenerate type-I 2HDM+a cascade and missing-energy benchmark topologies (h+MET, Z+MET, top-associated MET, visible heavy-Higgs cascades); existing degenerate type-II limits cannot be reused directly.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the relevant ATLAS/CMS Run 2 mono-Higgs, mono-Z, tt+MET and heavy-Higgs search analyses in MadAnalysis5 or CheckMATE, validate against at least one published mono-Higgs or mono-Z cutflow as the card's validation tests specify, and wire in the public simplified likelihoods where available."}, {"model_id": "2301_02514_singlet_doublet_freeze_in_fast_expansion_dm_v1", "model_name": "Singlet-doublet freeze-in dark matter in fast-expansion cosmology", "arxiv": "2301.02514", "score": 41, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public collider recast or likelihood exists for the boosted W/Z/h plus missing-momentum jet-substructure MVA search; the FeynRules/MadGraph model files used by the authors are not public, so the quoted LHC mass reach cannot be reused or reinterpreted.", "proposed_resolution": "Publish the FeynRules/UFO model files and implement the boosted-boson-plus-MET selection as a recast analysis in MadAnalysis5 or CheckMATE, including a simplified-likelihood surface over (m_2, c_tau, branching fractions)."}, {"model_id": "2201_08409_inelastic_dirac_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Inelastic Dirac Dark Matter", "arxiv": "2201.08409", "score": 38, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public recast pipeline implements chi_2 displaced-decay and scattering acceptances (detector geometry, visible-energy thresholds, lifetime dependence) for fixed-target, beam-dump, and flavor-factory experiments in the i2DM parameterization.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement i2DM in a public dark-sector sensitivity framework (e.g. a SensCalc- or FORESEE-style geometry/acceptance code driven by the i2DM FeynRules model), encoding LSND, MiniBooNE, Belle II, ICARUS/SBN, LDMX, and SeaQuest geometries and cuts, and validate against the paper's exclusion curves."}, {"model_id": "1803_00820_nonthermal_wimp_baryogenesis_v1", "model_name": "Non-thermal WIMP baryogenesis model", "arxiv": "1803.00820", "score": 37.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The LHC bound on the colored psi/parent state is an approximate reinterpretation of gluino searches; no dedicated recast likelihood for the model's actual production cross section and u+MET-like decay topology exists (likelihood_available: no, recasting_needed: yes).", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the vectorlike color-triplet psi in MadGraph/FeynRules and recast current jets+MET searches with CheckMATE or MadAnalysis5, producing an exclusion likelihood in the (m_phi/m_psi, m_chi) plane to replace the borrowed gluino floor."}, {"model_id": "1911_03481_twin_bino_like_neutralino_dm_v1", "model_name": "Twin bino-like neutralino dark matter", "arxiv": "1911.03481", "score": 37.5, "severity": "minor", "description": "No recast pipeline exists for the model's LHC signatures in the displaced-vertex regime, where small visible-twin neutralino mixing gives macroscopic stau/higgsino decay lengths outside the coverage of standard prompt electroweakino recasts.", "proposed_resolution": "Generate events in MadGraph with the mixing-controlled lifetimes and recast against ATLAS/CMS displaced-vertex and long-lived-particle searches using the LLP modules of MadAnalysis or CheckMATE, mapping exclusions onto the (mu, m_stau, mixing) plane."}, {"model_id": "1807_07921_leptophobic_axial_zprime_dirac_dm_v1", "model_name": "Anomaly-free leptophobic axial Z-prime Dirac dark matter", "arxiv": "1807.07921", "score": 36.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public, up-to-date collider likelihood for the leptophobic Z': the dijet/dilepton/monojet exclusions are a paper-internal recast of pre-2019 ATLAS/CMS data, with only partial likelihood availability, so production-grade constraints cannot be evaluated.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a reusable recast of current full-Run-2 dijet, dilepton, and monojet searches (e.g. in CheckMATE, MadAnalysis 5, or Contur using the UFO model from gap_1), including the radiatively generated kinetic-mixing dilepton channel, and expose it as a likelihood over (m_Zprime, m_chi, g_B, m_s)."}, {"model_id": "1806_04488_right_sneutrino_fimp_v1", "model_name": "Right-sneutrino FIMP dark matter with long-lived stau NLSP", "arxiv": "1806.04488", "score": 36, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No public detector-level recast or likelihood exists for the long-lived stau HSCP signature of this model: the beta/time-of-flight/dE/dx selection is done with private benchmark-level cuts on Delphes output, and CMS HSCP limits are applied only as quoted mass bounds rather than as a reusable statistical implementation.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the CMS heavy-stable-charged-particle search (time-of-flight and dE/dx selections with published efficiency maps) in a public LLP recasting framework such as the LLP Recasting Repository or HackAnalysis on top of the existing MadGraph+Pythia+Delphes chain, and expose it as an event-count likelihood for stau benchmarks."}, {"model_id": "2304_01082_gmsugra_dfsz_axino_lsp_bino_nlsp_v1", "model_name": "GmSUGRA DFSZ axino LSP with long-lived bino NLSP", "arxiv": "2304.01082", "score": 36.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public recast or reusable likelihood exists for the HL-LHC non-pointing/displaced-photon plus missing-transverse-momentum search applied to slepton cascades ending in a long-lived bino decaying to axino plus photon; the paper's detector-level efficiencies are private and only an approximate likelihood is noted.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the displaced-photon selection (timing/pointing plus MET cuts) in a public LLP recasting framework such as CheckMATE or MadAnalysis with Delphes, validate against the paper's benchmark signal yields, and publish efficiency maps over (m_chi10, m_slepton_R, tau_chi)."}, {"model_id": "2403_08666_neutron_dark_decay_light_scalar_dm_v1", "model_name": "Neutron dark-decay light-scalar dark matter model", "arxiv": "2403.08666", "score": 36, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The route's constraints are applied only as pass-fail bands (2-solar-mass cut, neutron lifetime discrepancy, invisible-Higgs interval) with likelihood_available 'no' or 'unknown' throughout; there is no combined likelihood over (m_chi, m_phi, theta, z_chi, z_n) using actual bottle/beam lifetime data, NICER/pulsar mass-radius posteriors, and LHC invisible-Higgs measurements.", "proposed_resolution": "Assemble a global likelihood: a Gaussian bottle-vs-beam neutron-lifetime likelihood for Br(n -> chi phi), published NICER and radio-pulsar mass(-radius) posteriors applied to the TOV output of gap_1, and the ATLAS/CMS invisible-Higgs branching likelihood, packaged for a standard sampler (e.g. as a GAMBIT or Cobaya module)."}], "rank_impact": 7, "rank_value": 6, "rank_structure_formation": 14}
{"project": "A CMB energy-injection and ΔN_eff constraint toolkit", "theme": "CMB likelihood & ΔN_eff machinery", "deliverable": "Standardized Planck(+ACT/SPT) likelihood wrappers for energy injection, annihilation/decay, and ΔN_eff from dark radiation, consumable without a full cosmology-pipeline setup.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "data", "derivation", "likelihood", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 2652.9, "impact_structure_formation": 683.8, "cost": 3.3, "value_ratio": 803.9, "n_models": 196, "n_models_structure_formation": 45, "n_gaps": 201, "effort_counts": {"medium": 128, "small": 49, "large": 24}, "severity_counts": {"degrades_precision": 102, "blocks_key_observables": 78, "minor": 16, "blocks_all_observables": 5}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1910_04901_self_interacting_neutrino_dw_sterile_dm_v1", "model_name": "Dodelson-Widrow sterile neutrino dark matter with active-neutrino self-interactions", "arxiv": "1910.04901", "score": 43, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No implemented likelihood exists for the constraint overlay: X-ray line searches, BBN mediator bounds, and kaon-decay/DUNE laboratory limits are only compiled as figure regions from the paper, with likelihood_available set to no for both constraint entries.", "proposed_resolution": "Assemble a composite likelihood: published X-ray line flux limits mapped to sin^2(2theta) vs m4 via the standard radiative decay rate, an N_eff/BBN term for the few-MeV scalar coupled to neutrinos (e.g. computed with a BBN code including the phi thermal population), and digitized K+ -> mu + nu phi limits, exposed over (m4, theta, m_phi, lambda_phi)."}, {"model_id": "1810_09474_unified_superfluid_dark_sector_v1", "model_name": "Unified superfluid dark sector", "arxiv": "1810.09474", "score": 41, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The nonlinear equations for the two-phase (superfluid core plus normal envelope) structure are derived but not solved, and simulation_calibrated = no, so halo and subhalo mass-function effects and cluster-scale predictions are uncalibrated.", "proposed_resolution": "Run nonlinear structure-formation simulations of the two-state superfluid (SPH-like two-fluid or Gross-Pitaevskii-based solver in the condensed regions) to calibrate core sizes, halo mass functions, and the cluster normal-phase fraction against the paper's fiducial parameters."}, {"model_id": "2205_05714_flavor_blind_zprime_mev_scalar_dm_v1", "model_name": "Flavor-blind Z-prime mediated complex scalar MeV dark matter", "arxiv": "2205.05714", "score": 40, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No BBN light-element likelihood is implemented for this specific benchmark: the card's BBN/CMB constraint applies to broader light-WIMP classes and explicitly requires branch-by-branch recasting to the flavor-blind Z-prime scalar, which has not been done.", "proposed_resolution": "Couple the solver output (time-dependent T_gamma/T_nu and expansion history) to a public BBN code such as PRIMAT, PArthENoPE, or AlterBBN to compute helium and deuterium yields and build a light-element likelihood for the benchmark's branching ratios."}, {"model_id": "1310_6061_bec_scalar_field_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Bose-Einstein-condensed scalar field dark matter", "arxiv": "1310.6061", "score": 39, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "There is no current-data likelihood for the SFDM expansion-history constraint: the quoted bounds on m and lambda/(mc^2)^2 derive from 2013-era BBN abundances and CMB equality values, and the card flags that recasting is needed before the allowed region can be trusted.", "proposed_resolution": "Couple the gap_1 background solver to current Planck CMB and PRIMAT/PArthENoPE-style BBN likelihoods in Cobaya, sampling (m, lambda/(mc^2)^2) directly so the N_eff(t) and z_eq shifts are constrained by modern data rather than the historical 68% regions."}, {"model_id": "1412_3113_neutrino_interacting_asymmetric_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Neutrino-interacting asymmetric dark matter with a charged mediator", "arxiv": "1412.3113", "score": 39, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The laboratory/astrophysical portal constraints (heavy-neutral-lepton searches, active-sterile mixing, BBN/CMB N_eff for the MeV-scale sector) have only a partial, flavor-averaged treatment; the card notes a precision bound needs flavor-specific mixing and decay tables and no combined likelihood is available.", "proposed_resolution": "Assemble a combined constraint module from public heavy-neutral-lepton limit compilations and BBN/CMB N_eff bounds for MeV-scale sectors, computing the model's flavor-dependent U_i4 mixing pattern and mostly invisible heavy-neutrino branching ratios so laboratory limits are applied to the correct visible fraction."}, {"model_id": "2302_11140_adm_cmb_birefringence_cs_current_v1", "model_name": "Asymmetric dark matter with Chern-Simons photon-current coupling", "arxiv": "2302.11140", "score": 39, "severity": "minor", "description": "No CMB birefringence likelihood is wrapped for the model: the Planck PR4 alpha measurement is used only as a quoted target band, with no machine-usable posterior connecting (M_chi, M, asymmetry) to the measured rotation angle.", "proposed_resolution": "Encode the published Planck PR4 isotropic birefringence measurement (0.30 +/- 0.11 deg, foreground-improved 0.36 +/- 0.11 deg) as a Gaussian likelihood on alpha and chain it to the analytic alpha(M_chi, M, asymmetry) formula from step s1."}, {"model_id": "2403_07528_millicharged_cointeracting_dark_photon_v1", "model_name": "Millicharged co-interacting dark photon dark matter", "arxiv": "2403.07528", "score": 39, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The CMB spectral-distortion constraint is applied as phenomenological |y| and |mu| bounds with likelihood_available 'no'; there is no computation of the distortion Green's-function response to the redshift-dependent photon injection from A'-chi-enhanced conversion in this model.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the model's conversion-driven energy-injection history in a spectral-distortion Green's-function code (e.g. extend CosmoTherm or the SZpack/Green's-function distortion machinery) and wrap COBE/FIRAS mu and y limits as a likelihood over (m_A', epsilon, f_chi, g_d)."}, {"model_id": "1805_06876_composite_adm_dark_photon_portal_v1", "model_name": "Composite asymmetric dark matter with a dark photon portal", "arxiv": "1805.06876", "score": 38.25, "severity": "minor", "description": "The dark-nucleon decay width via the B-L portal operator is only an effective-operator scaling estimate: the hadronic matrix element between the dark nucleon and dark-pion-plus-neutrino final state has not been derived for any concrete dark-hadron spectrum, so the quoted M_* > 1e8.5 GeV limit cannot be sharpened or generalized.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the portal-operator matrix elements with naive dimensional analysis anchored to lattice QCD proton-decay matrix elements rescaled to the dark confinement scale, for the specific dark gauge group and quark content, producing a decay-width formula with quantified uncertainty."}, {"model_id": "2205_11846_thdm_sterile_neutrino_portal_dirac_fermion_dm_v1", "model_name": "THDM sterile-neutrino-portal Dirac-fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "2205.11846", "score": 37, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No quantitative CMB/BBN energy-injection likelihood exists for the late NLSP decays with neutrino-rich final states; the paper's constraints are plot-level and the card notes the numerical likelihood was not reconstructed.", "proposed_resolution": "Recast the NLSP decay spectra through ACROPOLIS for BBN and ExoCLASS/DarkAges deposition functions for CMB, adding a neutrino-injection branch, and package the result as a tau_NLSP-m_NLSP likelihood."}, {"model_id": "2205_11846_thdm_sterile_neutrino_portal_scalar_dm_v1", "model_name": "THDM sterile-neutrino-portal scalar-singlet dark matter", "arxiv": "2205.11846", "score": 37, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No quantitative CMB/BBN energy-injection likelihood exists for late NLSP decays with neutrino-rich final states; the card records only plot-level constraints and notes the numerical likelihood was not reconstructed.", "proposed_resolution": "Recast the NLSP decay spectra through ACROPOLIS for BBN and ExoCLASS/DarkAges deposition functions for CMB, including a neutrino-injection branch, delivering a reusable tau_NLSP-m_NLSP likelihood surface."}], "rank_impact": 8, "rank_value": 8, "rank_structure_formation": 11}
{"project": "A direct-detection recast framework beyond the standard WIMP", "theme": "Direct-detection recast & likelihood", "deliverable": "Recast machinery for XENONnT/LZ/CRESST-class results covering sub-GeV kinematics, non-standard form factors, inelastic and boosted scenarios, exposing proper likelihoods rather than published 90% curves.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "data", "derivation", "likelihood", "other", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 2561.2, "impact_structure_formation": 167.2, "cost": 2.4, "value_ratio": 1067.2, "n_models": 216, "n_models_structure_formation": 13, "n_gaps": 230, "effort_counts": {"medium": 114, "small": 106, "large": 10}, "severity_counts": {"degrades_precision": 137, "blocks_key_observables": 76, "minor": 16, "blocks_all_observables": 1}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1912_09904_cosmic_ray_boosted_gidm_spin2_v1", "model_name": "Cosmic-ray boosted sub-GeV gravitationally interacting dark matter with a spin-2 mediator", "arxiv": "1912.09904", "score": 47.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No proper experimental likelihood is implemented for the boosted-DM recoil spectrum: the XENON1T constraint is an approximate bin-by-bin recast without official detector response/efficiency tables, and no electron-recoil (S2-only) likelihood recast exists for the spin-2 model at all.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a binned-count likelihood from XENON1T (and current LZ/XENONnT) public data releases with published efficiency curves, and add an S2-only ionization-channel recast mapping the boosted spectrum through the xenon charge-yield model, so exclusions become reproducible statistical limits rather than order-of-magnitude reaches."}, {"model_id": "2302_11140_adm_cmb_birefringence_cs_current_v1", "model_name": "Asymmetric dark matter with Chern-Simons photon-current coupling", "arxiv": "2302.11140", "score": 39, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The loop-induced ADM-quark interaction from the dimension-six current-photon Chern-Simons operator has only an order-of-magnitude heavy-mediator estimate with simplified quark-charge/log factors; no dedicated loop-level matching and RG running to nuclear-recoil operators exists, so the claimed LZ exclusion of the 5 GeV benchmark is low-robustness.", "proposed_resolution": "Compute the one-loop matching of J_mu A_nu Ftilde/M^2 onto quark-level effective operators, run them to the nuclear scale with standard DM EFT running tools (e.g. runDM/DirectDM), and evaluate the recoil rate against the LZ exposure with a standard direct-detection rate code."}, {"model_id": "1805_06876_composite_adm_dark_photon_portal_v1", "model_name": "Composite asymmetric dark matter with a dark photon portal", "arxiv": "1805.06876", "score": 38.25, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The composite dark-baryon form factor for dark-photon-mediated nuclear scattering is not available: direct-detection recasts currently assume pointlike dark matter, while the card flags that compositeness and the light-mediator recoil spectrum can alter the predicted spectra.", "proposed_resolution": "Compute the dark-baryon charge-radius form factor from the dark QCD spectrum (scaled from lattice QCD nucleon results at the dark confinement scale) and add it, with the light-mediator 1/(q^2 + m_Aprime^2)^2 propagator, to a DDCalc or wimprates recoil pipeline covering PandaX-II through DARWIN exposures."}, {"model_id": "2006_12348_decaying_warm_dark_matter_dark_photon_v1", "model_name": "Decaying warm dark matter with a massive dark-photon daughter", "arxiv": "2006.12348", "score": 38, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The xenon absorption-rate step lacks a detector-response model and a packaged XENON1T electronic-recoil likelihood, so the 2-3 keV dark-photon absorption window is fit only at the level of quoted source regions.", "proposed_resolution": "Combine public xenon photoelectric cross-section tables with the XENON1T energy resolution, efficiency, and background model from the electronic-recoil data release into a binned likelihood for the (m_Aprime, epsilon, dark-photon fraction) absorption line."}, {"model_id": "2205_02906_minimal_inflaton_higgs_portal_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Minimal nonminimal-coupling inflaton dark matter", "arxiv": "2205.02906", "score": 38, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The direct-detection constraint is only the XENON1T-derived coupling bound lambda_hphi(1 TeV) < 0.25 quoted in the text; no current-generation (LZ/XENONnT) likelihood is implemented for the Higgs-portal scalar near and away from the resonance window.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the scalar-singlet Higgs-portal cross section in DDCalc (or reuse existing singlet-scalar global-fit likelihoods, e.g. GAMBIT's) with current LZ/XENONnT data and combine with the analytic RG-unitarity consistency condition."}, {"model_id": "1912_01758_2hdm_singlet_doublet_fermion_blind_spot_v1", "model_name": "2HDM singlet-doublet fermion Higgs-portal dark matter with generalized blind spots", "arxiv": "1912.01758", "score": 37.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The scan's direct-detection likelihood is a non-released RAPIDD surrogate tuned to XENON1T (plus PICO-60), so no reusable likelihood exists and the constraint is outdated relative to current LZ/XENONnT exposures, which move the blind-spot viability boundaries.", "proposed_resolution": "Replace the surrogate with a public direct-detection likelihood package (e.g. DDCalc extended with LZ and XENONnT exposures), keeping the min(1, Omega/Omega_obs) rescaling, and re-run the MultiNest scan over the paper's prior ranges."}, {"model_id": "2405_08881_light_thermal_pseudo_dirac_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Light thermal pseudo-Dirac dark matter with dark photon mediator", "arxiv": "2405.08881", "score": 37, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No combined likelihood exists that maps the NLO-shifted thermal target onto direct-detection (XENON1T/PandaX/SENSEI) and accelerator (LDMX/NA64/Belle II) exclusions as a function of mass splitting; only compiled LO benchmark exclusion curves are available.", "proposed_resolution": "Assemble a recast pipeline using public detector-response tools (obscura/DDCalc for nuclear recoils, QEdark-style form factors for electron recoils) plus digitized accelerator reach curves, driven by the LO+NLO cross sections, to produce consistent exclusions in (m_chi, epsilon, alpha_D, delta)."}, {"model_id": "1804_02847_multiple_sm_sector_dissipative_dm_v1", "model_name": "Dissipative dark matter from multiple Standard Model sectors", "arxiv": "1804.02847", "score": 37, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The local dark-plasma phase-space distribution at Earth, including detector shielding and dark-metal composition, has not been derived, and without it kinetic-mixing direct-detection rates cannot be computed from standard Maxwellian halo assumptions.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the local dark-plasma density, temperature, and velocity distribution from the steady-state halo solution, model dark-electromagnetic shielding and capture by the Earth for epsilon~1e-10, and feed the resulting flux into standard nuclear/electronic recoil-rate codes with detector-specific efficiencies."}, {"model_id": "2112_11387_dark_axion_portal_mixed_axion_dark_photon_v1", "model_name": "Dark Axion Portal mixed axion-dark-photon dark matter", "arxiv": "2112.11387", "score": 34.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No likelihood exists for eV-scale dark-photon absorption in semiconductor/noble-liquid targets applicable to a subdominant (f_gammaD ~ 0.1) component: the card records XENON10/XENON100 limits and DAMIC-M projections as fixed curves (likelihood_available: no), so exclusion at new (m_gammaD, epsilon, f_gammaD) points can only be done by curve rescaling.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a rate-plus-background absorption likelihood from published XENON ionization data and DAMIC-M/SENSEI threshold, leakage-current and exposure assumptions, taking the s2 absorption spectrum as input and scaling linearly with f_gammaD, and validate against the source's epsilon ~ 1e-16 reach at 20-200 eV."}, {"model_id": "2203_15813_thermal_squeezeout_zprime_dark_baryons_v1", "model_name": "Z' portal thermal squeezeout dark-baryon model", "arxiv": "2203.15813", "score": 34, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "Laboratory constraints on the Z' portal are digitized bounds rather than likelihoods: the XENON1T recoil limit is applied at cross-section level and the LHC dilepton bound uses a contact-like approximation (m_Zprime > ~30 alpha_Zprime TeV) without resonance/interference treatment.", "proposed_resolution": "Wire the coherent Z'-exchange cross section into DDCalc for the XENON1T (and newer LZ/XENONnT) likelihoods, and recast the ATLAS/CMS high-mass Drell-Yan dilepton searches with a full Z' resonance-plus-interference simulation (MadGraph plus the published HistFactory likelihoods) instead of the contact approximation."}], "rank_impact": 9, "rank_value": 5, "rank_structure_formation": 16}
{"project": "A dwarf-galaxy structure likelihood", "theme": "Dwarf-galaxy dynamics & density profiles", "deliverable": "A likelihood connecting model predictions for inner density profiles, dynamical heating and star-cluster survival in dwarfs to stellar-kinematics datasets, with marginalization over baryonic feedback.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "derivation", "emulator", "likelihood", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 1978.6, "impact_structure_formation": 1592.0, "cost": 5.3, "value_ratio": 373.3, "n_models": 136, "n_models_structure_formation": 107, "n_gaps": 155, "effort_counts": {"medium": 86, "large": 49, "small": 18, "major_program": 2}, "severity_counts": {"degrades_precision": 80, "blocks_key_observables": 68, "minor": 5, "blocks_all_observables": 2}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1011_2217_dodelson_widrow_sterile_neutrino_wdm_v1", "model_name": "Dodelson-Widrow sterile-neutrino warm dark matter", "arxiv": "1011.2217", "score": 40, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The dwarf-galaxy phase-space-density constraint on the DW sterile neutrino has no likelihood (likelihood_available: unknown), and the halo-history dependence of the coarse-grained Q_cg evolution is uncalibrated, leaving the Tremaine-Gunn-style bound qualitative.", "proposed_resolution": "Construct a phase-space likelihood comparing the primordial Q of f_DW(y) with measured dwarf-spheroidal phase-space densities, using WDM simulations to calibrate how much Q_cg degrades during halo assembly."}, {"model_id": "1803_03644_late_sommerfeld_dm_to_dark_radiation_v1", "model_name": "Late Sommerfeld-enhanced dark-matter conversion to dark radiation", "arxiv": "1803.03644", "score": 40.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No dwarf-galaxy self-interaction likelihood exists for the velocity-dependent sigma_T/m_chi(v) prediction; the route only supports an approximate threshold comparison at a single 30 km/s benchmark rather than a proper halo-population recast.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a likelihood over published dwarf and low-surface-brightness halo fits (e.g. Jeans/isothermal SIDM halo-model inferences of sigma/m at measured velocity dispersions) that consumes sigma_T/m_chi(v) curves, replacing the single-velocity threshold cut."}, {"model_id": "1804_10249_six_flavor_quark_matter_nugget_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Six-flavor quark matter nugget dark matter", "arxiv": "1804.10249", "score": 39.75, "severity": "minor", "description": "No quantitative rate and signature model exists for the proposed transient probes: photon emission from nugget collisions with compact stars and with other nuggets is described only qualitatively, with no derived energy-deposition spectrum, event rate, or detectability estimate for the 6FQM benchmark.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the energy deposition and photon light curve for a 1e10 g, 1e2 cm nugget impacting a neutron star or white dwarf surface, combine with the halo flux calculation into a per-survey transient rate, and identify which existing transient surveys bound or could detect the predicted events."}, {"model_id": "2204_01928_singlet_susy_singlino_sidm_v1", "model_name": "Singlet-SUSY singlino self-interacting dark matter", "arxiv": "2204.01928", "score": 39, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The SIDM small-scale-structure observable is evaluated only against the phenomenological 0.1-10 cm^2/g target window at v = 200 km/s; no simulation-calibrated halo prediction or astrophysical likelihood connects this model's velocity-dependent cross section to dwarf, LSB, or cluster data (simulation_calibrated is 'no', likelihood_available is 'no').", "proposed_resolution": "Feed the model's velocity-dependent sigma(v)/m through an SIDM halo-modeling framework calibrated on SIDM N-body simulations (e.g. isothermal Jeans modeling of rotation curves and cluster profiles) to build a likelihood over the dwarf-to-cluster velocity range instead of a fixed target interval."}, {"model_id": "2306_16966_u1_dark_photon_sidm_fopt_v1", "model_name": "U(1)' dark-photon self-interacting dark matter from a MeV first-order phase transition", "arxiv": "2306.16966", "score": 38.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The dwarf-to-cluster SIDM comparison uses target cross-section ranges rather than a likelihood: no public pipeline maps the CLASSICS sigma/m(v) curve onto halo rotation-curve, core-size, and cluster data with astrophysical (baryonic and halo-formation) marginalization.", "proposed_resolution": "Couple sigma/m(v) to a calibrated SIDM halo model (isothermal-Jeans or SIDM-adapted concentration-mass emulator) and build a joint likelihood over published dwarf/LSB rotation curves and cluster core measurements, replacing the O(1)-O(10) and 0.2 cm^2/g targets with posterior constraints on (m_DM, m_Aprime, g')."}, {"model_id": "2006_16139_late_decay_self_interacting_dm_v1", "model_name": "Self-interacting dark matter from late pseudo-WIMP decays", "arxiv": "2006.16139", "score": 37, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No cosmological SIDM simulations exist with late-decay initial conditions, so the claimed dwarf-scale improvements and ultra-SIDM SMBH-seeding effects of dark matter produced by Gyr-scale decays are not calibrated against any halo-structure prediction.", "proposed_resolution": "Run velocity-dependent SIDM N-body simulations (Yukawa cross section from m_A, g, m_chi) that start from decaying-CDM initial conditions with the appropriate tau_S and kick velocity, and calibrate a halo-profile model for the SIDM and uSIDM regimes."}, {"model_id": "1804_00277_right_handed_sneutrino_sidm_v1", "model_name": "Right-handed sneutrino self-interacting dark matter in double focus point BLSSM", "arxiv": "1804.00277", "score": 35.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The dwarf and cluster self-interaction constraints used by the card exist only as quoted target ranges (0.1-10 cm^2/g at 30 km/s, 0.1-1.25 at 2000 km/s, 0.1-0.47 at 900 km/s) with no public likelihood, so the allowed region can only be delimited by hard cuts rather than a statistical fit.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a likelihood for sigma_V/m(v) from published SIDM halo inferences (dwarf/LSB rotation curves and merging/relaxed cluster analyses, e.g. the Kaplinghat-Tulin-Yu data points), parameterized in (m_snu, m_phi, effective coupling), and release it as a reusable SIDM constraint module."}, {"model_id": "1806_09154_hidden_u1d_two_component_scalar_dm_v1", "model_name": "Two-component hidden U(1)_D scalar dark matter", "arxiv": "1806.09154", "score": 34, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The self-interaction motivation is filtered only through qualitative sigma_self/m targets; no halo-shape or small-scale-structure likelihood connects the light component's dark-photon-mediated self-scattering to dwarf/cluster observables (card: no halo-shape likelihood attached).", "proposed_resolution": "Adopt the standard velocity-dependent SIDM cross-section calculation for a light-mediator Yukawa potential and compare against the compiled dwarf/LSB/cluster sigma/m constraints (e.g. the Kaplinghat-Tulin-Yu data points) packaged as a simple likelihood over (m_Zprime, alpha_D, m_light)."}, {"model_id": "2312_12322_lepton_quarticity_self_interacting_dirac_dm_v1", "model_name": "Lepton-quarticity self-interacting Dirac fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "2312.12322", "score": 34, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public likelihood connects a velocity-dependent scalar-mediated self-interaction cross section sigma/m(v) to dwarf, galaxy, and cluster halo observations; the sigma/m ~ 1 cm^2/g target and 0.1 cm^2/g halo-shape floor are literature ranges, not an evaluable statistical constraint.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a likelihood mapping (m_DM, m_S, y_chi) through the Yukawa transfer cross section into halo predictions via calibrated SIDM N-body/isothermal-Jeans modeling (e.g. extending existing SIDM rotation-curve and cluster-shape fitting pipelines), covering the dwarf-to-cluster velocity range."}, {"model_id": "2405_17564_fopt_rescued_self_interacting_fermion_dm_v1", "model_name": "First-order phase-transition rescued self-interacting fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "2405.17564", "score": 34, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The SIDM small-scale-structure requirement is imposed only as a target band in sigma_T/m_DM with no halo-scale likelihood and no simulation calibration for this velocity-dependent light-mediator model (simulation_calibrated: no).", "proposed_resolution": "Map the model's velocity-dependent sigma_T/m through an existing SIDM halo-modeling framework (isothermal-Jeans or gravothermal-fluid fits calibrated on published SIDM N-body suites) against dwarf and cluster rotation-curve/density-profile datasets to replace the target band with a quantitative likelihood."}], "rank_impact": 10, "rank_value": 10, "rank_structure_formation": 6}
{"project": "An extended sterile-neutrino production code", "theme": "Sterile-neutrino production solver", "deliverable": "A quantum-kinetic production solver going beyond Dodelson–Widrow/Shi–Fuller: new mediators, self-interactions, and non-standard expansion histories, emitting phase-space distributions ready for Boltzmann codes.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "derivation", "likelihood", "tool"], "impact": 1673.0, "impact_structure_formation": 1176.3, "cost": 4.8, "value_ratio": 348.6, "n_models": 78, "n_models_structure_formation": 57, "n_gaps": 82, "effort_counts": {"medium": 57, "large": 22, "small": 3}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_all_observables": 15, "blocks_key_observables": 54, "degrades_precision": 13}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1910_04901_self_interacting_neutrino_dw_sterile_dm_v1", "model_name": "Dodelson-Widrow sterile neutrino dark matter with active-neutrino self-interactions", "arxiv": "1910.04901", "score": 43, "severity": "blocks_all_observables", "description": "No public quantum kinetic solver evolves sterile-neutrino production with a light-scalar-mediated active-neutrino self-interaction, i.e. the modified in-medium mixing potential and phi-mediated scattering/on-shell decay collision terms of the paper's master equation; only standard-DW codes (sterile-dm, LASAGNA) are public.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a public Dodelson-Widrow quantum kinetic code (e.g. sterile-dm) with the phi-induced thermal self-energy and the scattering plus on-shell phi decay/inverse-decay production rates over (m_phi, lambda_phi, active flavor), validating against the paper's m4 = 7.1 keV S-shaped abundance contour and case A/B/C spectra."}, {"model_id": "1911_03398_resonant_sterile_neutrino_nonstandard_cosmology_v1", "model_name": "Resonantly produced sterile neutrino dark matter in non-standard pre-BBN cosmology", "arxiv": "1911.03398", "score": 41, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public resonant sterile-neutrino production solver supports a non-standard pre-BBN expansion history: existing quantum-kinetic/Boltzmann codes (e.g. sterile-dm for Shi-Fuller production) hard-code the standard H(T), so the model's central parameterization of a modified Hubble rate above T_tr cannot be scanned with existing tools.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a public Shi-Fuller solver (sterile-dm or an averaged-Boltzmann reimplementation) to take a parameterized H(T) with power-law index and transition temperature T_tr as inputs, tracking lepton-asymmetry depletion and entropy conservation, and validate against the paper's example cosmology wedges in the mass-mixing plane."}, {"model_id": "2305_06364_twin_sterile_neutrino_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Twin sterile neutrino dark matter", "arxiv": "2305.06364", "score": 41, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public solver evolves the coupled SM and twin-sector baths with twin-sector Dodelson-Widrow sterile-neutrino production (including twin matter potentials), N_A freeze-out and out-of-equilibrium decay, and the resulting entropy injection and T_B/T_A history; the paper's calculation is in-house and unreleased.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a public sterile-neutrino production code (sterile-dm/DW-solver class) with a second gauge-sector bath: add twin matter potentials, coupled T_A(t)/T_B(t) evolution, and a decaying-N_A entropy-injection module, validated against the paper's Omega_NB = Omega_DM contours and pre-BBN injection timeline."}, {"model_id": "1909_13328_nonstandard_prebbn_sterile_neutrino_dm_v1", "model_name": "Non-resonantly produced sterile neutrino dark matter in non-standard pre-BBN cosmology", "arxiv": "1909.13328", "score": 40.2, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public sterile-neutrino production solver computes non-resonant freeze-in in non-standard pre-BBN expansion histories; existing Dodelson-Widrow codes (sterile-dm class) hard-code standard radiation domination and cannot scan H(T), T_tr, or entropy-producing low-reheating histories.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a public Dodelson-Widrow solver (or implement the paper's closed-form production kernels) with a parameterized pre-BBN module taking H(T), T_tr, and entropy injection as inputs, outputting f_s(p) and Omega_s h^2 over the (m_s, sin^2 2theta) plane for kination, scalar-tensor, and low-reheating cosmologies."}, {"model_id": "1703_06085_numsm_fnv_leptogenesis_sterile_dm_v1", "model_name": "nuMSM sterile-neutrino dark matter with fermion-number-violating leptogenesis effects", "arxiv": "1703.06085", "score": 40, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The N1 momentum distribution from resonant production boosted by the FNV-generated lepton asymmetry is not computed; the card records only an approximate distribution with no free-streaming length, so warm-DM structure predictions cannot be derived quantitatively.", "proposed_resolution": "Couple the time-dependent lepton asymmetry output of the kinetic solver into a public resonant sterile-neutrino production code (sterile-dm class) to obtain f(p) for N1 over the 1-50 keV mass window."}, {"model_id": "2205_06821_neutrino_coupled_ultralight_scalar_dm_v1", "model_name": "Neutrino-coupled ultralight scalar dark matter", "arxiv": "2205.06821", "score": 39, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The early-universe sterile-production Boltzmann calculation that yields Delta N_eff in the presence of the oscillating scalar background exists only as the paper's private computation; no public solver handles active-sterile production with a phi(t)-dependent mass splitting through BBN and neutrino decoupling.", "proposed_resolution": "Adapt a public sterile-neutrino production/decoupling solver (e.g. a LASAGNA-style momentum-averaged quantum kinetic code) to include the time-dependent induced Majorana mass from the cosmological scalar amplitude, validated against the paper's Planck Delta N_eff = 0.28 and BBN Delta N_eff > 0.5 contours."}, {"model_id": "2402_11902_ad_lball_sterile_neutrino_dm_v1", "model_name": "Affleck-Dine L-ball resonant sterile-neutrino dark matter scenario", "arxiv": "2402.11902", "score": 39.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public sterile-neutrino kinetic solver couples Shi-Fuller resonant production to a time-dependent lepton asymmetry L_nue(T) released by L-ball decay; existing public resonant-production codes assume a primordial (pre-existing) asymmetry, and the paper's numerical framework was not released, with the stationary-point approximation additionally limiting validity below m_s ~ 10-20 keV.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a public resonant sterile-neutrino production code (e.g. the sterile-dm solver of Venumadhav et al.) to accept an externally supplied L_nue(T) injection history from L-ball decay, solving the full momentum-dependent quantum kinetic equation to remove the stationary-point restriction, and validate against the paper's abundance contours and free-streaming lengths."}, {"model_id": "1702_04526_rhn_oscillation_sterile_neutrino_dm_v1", "model_name": "Sterile right-handed-neutrino dark matter from RHN oscillations", "arxiv": "1702.04526", "score": 38, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The full N1 momentum distribution from nonresonant RHN-RHN oscillation production is not derived or tabulated; the card gives only an approximate average momentum (p1/T about 2.8 with subsequent entropy redshifting), which is insufficient input for a Boltzmann transfer-function calculation and for a precise free-streaming bound.", "proposed_resolution": "Solve the momentum-dependent density-matrix/Boltzmann equations for RHN oscillation production (extending a sterile-neutrino production code such as sterile-dm from the active-sterile Dodelson-Widrow source to the heavy-RHN oscillation source), tabulate f(p) including pre-QCD entropy dilution, and pass it to CLASS as an ncdm distribution."}, {"model_id": "1909_04168_visible_sterile_neutrino_low_reheating_v1", "model_name": "Visible sterile-neutrino dark matter in low-reheating pre-BBN cosmology", "arxiv": "1909.04168", "score": 36.6, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public Boltzmann code computes non-resonant active-sterile freeze-in in a low-reheating-temperature pre-BBN cosmology; existing Dodelson-Widrow solvers such as sterile-dm assume standard radiation domination, so the suppressed abundance and modified momentum distribution f_s(p) for T_RH ~ 5 MeV cannot be regenerated without reimplementation.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a public sterile-neutrino production code (e.g. sterile-dm) with the low-reheating Hubble rate, entropy-injection temperature history, and matter-potential evolution below T_RH, outputting f_s(p) and Omega_s over the m_s-sin^2(2theta)-T_RH grid and validating against the paper's T_RH = 5 MeV suppression."}, {"model_id": "1909_04168_visible_sterile_neutrino_scalar_tensor_v1", "model_name": "Visible sterile-neutrino dark matter in scalar-tensor pre-BBN cosmology", "arxiv": "1909.04168", "score": 36.6, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public sterile-neutrino production Boltzmann solver supports a non-standard scalar-tensor pre-BBN expansion history; the extra momentum-dependent factor in f_s(p) relative to the active-neutrino distribution must currently be reconstructed by hand from the primary paper's equations.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a public Dodelson-Widrow production code (e.g. sterile-dm or a LASAGNA-style quantum-kinetic solver) to accept a user-supplied H(T), parameterized by the scalar-tensor transition temperature and enhancement factor, and output f_s(p), Omega_s, and N_eff."}], "rank_impact": 11, "rank_value": 11, "rank_structure_formation": 7}
{"project": "A velocity-dependent SIDM halo-modeling kit", "theme": "Self-interacting DM halo modeling", "deliverable": "Calibrated halo-level models (gravothermal evolution, core formation/collapse) for velocity-dependent cross sections, plus the likelihood connecting sigma(v)/m to rotation curves, clusters and dwarfs.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "derivation", "likelihood", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 1419.4, "impact_structure_formation": 1098.3, "cost": 5.2, "value_ratio": 273.0, "n_models": 91, "n_models_structure_formation": 69, "n_gaps": 103, "effort_counts": {"medium": 61, "small": 12, "large": 28, "major_program": 2}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 47, "degrades_precision": 46, "blocks_all_observables": 5, "minor": 5}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1805_03203_two_state_inelastic_self_interacting_dm_v1", "model_name": "Two-state inelastic self-interacting dark matter", "arxiv": "1805.03203", "score": 46.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The Arepo module implementing two-state inelastic (endothermic/exothermic) self-scattering is author code with no extracted public repository, so the simulation step of the only route cannot be reproduced or extended to new (sigma/m, Delta/m_chi, f_excited) points by others.", "proposed_resolution": "Obtain public release of the authors' Arepo inelastic-SIDM patch, or reimplement the two-state velocity-dependent scattering kernel (elastic, up-scattering, and exothermic down-scattering with velocity kicks) in a public N-body code with an existing SIDM module such as Gadget-4 or the public Arepo, validated against the paper's five-times-elastic-equivalence benchmark."}, {"model_id": "1910_10160_conformal_freeze_in_quark_portal_v1", "model_name": "Conformal freeze-in quark-portal dark matter", "arxiv": "1910.10160", "score": 39.7, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No curated likelihood or structured bound compilation exists for cluster-scale self-interaction (sigma_self/m_DM) to test the PGB self-scattering estimate; the card records only externally cited merger bounds requiring compilation.", "proposed_resolution": "Compile published cluster-merger and halo-shape sigma/m limits into a reusable likelihood module and apply it to the parametric PGB cross section as a function of epsilon and Lambda_gap."}, {"model_id": "1310_6061_bec_scalar_field_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Bose-Einstein-condensed scalar field dark matter", "arxiv": "1310.6061", "score": 39, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public background solver implements the complex SFDM with conserved U(1) charge and quartic self-interaction: the stiff, radiationlike, and CDM-like phase transitions that set N_eff and z_eq must be reproduced from the primary-paper equations, since standard CLASS/CAMB scalar-field modules do not cover this charge-conserving, self-interacting condensate.", "proposed_resolution": "Write a standalone FRW + Klein-Gordon background integrator (or a CLASS background extension) taking (m, lambda/(mc^2)^2, Q) as inputs, using the fast-oscillation effective-fluid approximation in the oscillatory regime and validating against the quoted phase-transition redshifts and the m >= 2.4e-21 eV/c^2 bound."}, {"model_id": "2006_16139_late_decay_self_interacting_dm_v1", "model_name": "Self-interacting dark matter from late pseudo-WIMP decays", "arxiv": "2006.16139", "score": 37, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "Public CLASS DCDM implementations cover decay to dark radiation or to a single massive daughter, but not this model's combined final state of massive self-interacting daughters with a tunable subdominant dark-radiation fraction F and daughter kick velocity.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend the massive-daughter DCDM branch of CLASS (Abellan et al. type) with a branching fraction F into dark radiation and the daughter phase-space distribution from the mass splitting delta, then rerun the MontePython CMB/BAO/SN scans to reproduce the paper's two preferred regions."}, {"model_id": "1804_07255_scalar_dm_clumps_angular_momentum_v1", "model_name": "Light scalar dark matter clumps with angular momentum", "arxiv": "1804.07255", "score": 36.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No dynamical-stability certification exists for the l > 0 variational clump branch: cited follow-up simulations find rotating Bose stars with attractive or negligible self-interactions unstable, but no public Gross-Pitaevskii-Poisson simulation suite maps stability across (l, self-interaction sign and strength, M), so it is unknown which angular-momentum configurations survive as long-lived dark-matter clumps.", "proposed_resolution": "Run 3D Gross-Pitaevskii-Poisson evolutions of the paper's stationary l > 0 profiles across attractive, negligible, and repulsive quartic couplings, recovering the spherical l = 0 limit as validation, and publish a stability map plus lifetime estimates as a registry data product."}, {"model_id": "2111_08732_ultralight_scalar_neutrino_coupled_dm_v1", "model_name": "Ultralight scalar dark matter coupled to Majorana neutrinos", "arxiv": "2111.08732", "score": 34, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No Boltzmann-solver implementation exists for neutrinos coupled to the coherent ultralight scalar background: the CMB constraint is derived from the simplified free-streaming proxy T_nu > g_phi*phi, and no CLASS/CAMB module treats the induced neutrino-plasma screening mass and the loss of neutrino anisotropic stress for this g_phi_ab coupling, so the exclusion boundary cannot be computed at Planck precision.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend CLASS with an interacting-neutrino sector for a coherent scalar background (modifying the neutrino Boltzmann hierarchy with the scalar-induced scattering/damping rate and time-varying effective mass, analogous to existing neutrino self-interaction implementations), and attach the Planck TT,TE,EE+lowE+lensing+BAO likelihood via MontePython or Cobaya, validating against the paper's approximate exclusion boundary."}, {"model_id": "1702_04906_split_simp_real_scalar_v1", "model_name": "Real scalar split SIMP dark matter", "arxiv": "1702.04906", "score": 34, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No likelihood implementations exist for the model's key constraints: cluster/Bullet-Cluster self-interaction bounds and sub-GeV exothermic down-scattering in low-threshold detectors are only recast by hand (likelihood_available: no/partial), and the exothermic recoil spectrum with splitting-set energy deposition and surviving fraction R_0 has no public detector-response implementation.", "proposed_resolution": "Add an inelastic (exothermic) kinematics mode with excited-fraction weighting to a sub-GeV scattering package such as DarkELF or QEdark and wrap published cluster sigma/m limits and sub-GeV detector exclusions as reusable likelihood modules keyed to (epsilon, m_V, Delta m, R_0, m)."}, {"model_id": "2309_02170_dissipative_axion_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Dissipative axion dark matter", "arxiv": "2309.02170", "score": 33, "severity": "blocks_all_observables", "description": "No public Boltzmann code implements the DADM system: an oscillating axion field with an extra thermal-friction term Gamma in its Klein-Gordon equation, coupled at background and perturbation level to a self-interacting dark-radiation fluid sourced by Gamma dot phi^2.", "proposed_resolution": "Modify CLASS (or CAMB) by adding the friction term to the scalar-field/fluid equations and a coupled self-interacting dark-radiation fluid with the corresponding perturbation source terms, using an effective-fluid treatment of the oscillating axion; validate by reproducing the paper's Gamma < 2.69 km/s/Mpc posteriors and S8 = 0.795 +/- 0.011, then release publicly with a MontePython/Cobaya interface."}, {"model_id": "1906_07659_decoupled_real_scalar_self_interacting_dm_v1", "model_name": "Decoupled self-interacting real scalar dark matter", "arxiv": "1906.07659", "score": 33.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The self-interaction constraint is applied only as the coarse Bullet Cluster criterion sigma/m < 1 cm^2/g; no halo-shape, cluster-merger, or velocity-dependent SIDM likelihood is available for this contact-interaction scalar (likelihood_available: no on all card constraints).", "proposed_resolution": "Adopt published SIDM cluster and halo-shape posteriors (velocity-independent limit, since the quartic contact cross section is velocity-flat at these scales) and package them as a reusable likelihood on sigma/m evaluated from lambda and m."}, {"model_id": "1910_05633_velocity_dependent_sidm_millicharged_thermal_v1", "model_name": "Velocity-dependent SIDM thermally coupled through millicharged dark matter", "arxiv": "1910.05633", "score": 31.7, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "Halo-core predictions rest on benchmark relative velocities and Maxwell-Boltzmann averaging; no N-body SIDM simulations calibrated for this model's specific light-scalar sigma_T(v) shape exist, so the mapping from cross section to core sizes and substructure is uncalibrated.", "proposed_resolution": "Run a small suite of cosmological zoom-in SIDM simulations (e.g. with the Arepo/GIZMO SIDM modules) sampling the paper's Yukawa sigma_T(v) benchmarks at m_SIDM = 10-40 GeV to calibrate the halo-average step against actual core formation."}], "rank_impact": 12, "rank_value": 13, "rank_structure_formation": 8}
{"project": "Interferometer forecasts and likelihoods for DM-sector signals", "theme": "GW detector forecasts & likelihoods (LIGO/LISA/ET)", "deliverable": "Shared LIGO/LISA/ET sensitivity and event-rate machinery for dark-sector mergers, backgrounds and continuous waves.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "data", "derivation", "likelihood", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 1155.5, "impact_structure_formation": 216.8, "cost": 6.4, "value_ratio": 180.5, "n_models": 85, "n_models_structure_formation": 13, "n_gaps": 89, "effort_counts": {"small": 18, "medium": 45, "large": 18, "major_program": 8}, "severity_counts": {"degrades_precision": 33, "blocks_key_observables": 45, "minor": 11}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "2204_01928_singlet_susy_singlino_sidm_v1", "model_name": "Singlet-SUSY singlino self-interacting dark matter", "arxiv": "2204.01928", "score": 39, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No released pipeline implements this model's singlet-sector finite-temperature effective potential in CosmoTransitions or converts the resulting phase-transition parameters into a GW spectrum and LISA/TianQin/Taiji SNR; the paper's scan scripts are private, so the FOPT and GW forecasts cannot currently be reproduced.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the paper's one-loop plus daisy finite-temperature singlet potential as a CosmoTransitions model class, extract alpha, beta/H, and T_n at the dark-sector temperature ratio T_f/T_SM = 0.47, and apply standard sound-wave/bubble-collision spectral fits with published LISA, TianQin, and Taiji sensitivity curves to reproduce the SNR contours."}, {"model_id": "2303_07372_hot_big_bang_black_hole_evaporation_particle_dm_v1", "model_name": "Stable particle dark matter from hot-big-bang black-hole evaporation", "arxiv": "2303.07372", "score": 35.5, "severity": "minor", "description": "The high-reheat CMB target (high-frequency gravitational-wave background from the near-Planckian thermal plasma contributing to N_eff) has no step in the forward-model chain and no calculational pipeline or likelihood: the card marks the likelihood as unknown and recasting as needed, so the observable cannot currently be evaluated.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the thermal-plasma graviton-emission calculation to obtain Omega_GW(T_RH) integrated over the expansion history, convert it to Delta N_eff, and compare against the Planck N_eff posterior and forecast CMB-S4-class sensitivities as a simple likelihood step appended to the route."}, {"model_id": "2403_03252_fopt_vector_dm_v1", "model_name": "First-order phase-transition vector dark matter", "arxiv": "2403.03252", "score": 35, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No public joint likelihood exists that confronts the model's correlated predictions (Planck relic abundance plus the FOPT stochastic GW spectrum against LISA/pulsar-timing-class detector sensitivities) in one statistical framework; the card notes no unified likelihood is provided.", "proposed_resolution": "Assemble a likelihood combining a Gaussian Planck relic-density term with existing public GW sensitivity machinery (power-law-integrated curves and SNR calculations of the PTPlot/LISA-tools type) over the (m_V, g_D, alpha, beta_over_H, T) parameter space."}, {"model_id": "2305_14242_axion_rotation_poltergeist_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Axion rotation Poltergeist dark matter", "arxiv": "2305.14242", "score": 34, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public scalar-induced gravitational-wave solver handles the Poltergeist source: a rapid matter-to-kination equation-of-state transition of the axion-rotation fluid with its time-dependent sound speed and slower GW redshifting relative to the kination background; the source's numerical induced-GW calculation is private.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend an existing public scalar-induced-GW spectrum code (e.g. SIGWfast-style kernel integrators) to accept a time-dependent equation of state and sound speed c_s(t) through the matter-to-kination transition, parameterized by the transition temperature and sharpness derived from (m_S, f_a, Y_theta, d), and validate against the source's Omega_GW spectra."}, {"model_id": "2403_03252_fopt_fermion_dm_v1", "model_name": "First-order phase-transition fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "2403.03252", "score": 33, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No public joint likelihood exists that confronts the model's correlated predictions (Planck relic abundance plus the FOPT stochastic GW spectrum against LISA/pulsar-timing-class detector sensitivities) in one statistical framework; the card notes no unified likelihood is provided.", "proposed_resolution": "Assemble a likelihood combining a Gaussian Planck relic-density term with existing public GW sensitivity machinery (power-law-integrated curves and SNR calculations of the PTPlot/LISA-tools type) over the (m_chi, y_chi, alpha, beta_over_H, T) parameter space."}, {"model_id": "2403_03252_fopt_scalar_dm_v1", "model_name": "First-order phase-transition scalar dark matter", "arxiv": "2403.03252", "score": 33, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No public joint likelihood exists that confronts the model's correlated predictions (Planck relic abundance plus the FOPT stochastic GW spectrum against LISA/pulsar-timing-class detector sensitivities) in one statistical framework; the card notes no unified likelihood is provided.", "proposed_resolution": "Assemble a likelihood combining a Gaussian Planck relic-density term with existing public GW sensitivity machinery (power-law-integrated curves and SNR calculations of the PTPlot/LISA-tools type) over the (m_S, lambda_S, alpha, beta_over_H, T) parameter space."}, {"model_id": "1911_12342_dark_proton_pion_asymmetric_mattergenesis_v1", "model_name": "Dark proton-pion asymmetric mattergenesis model", "arxiv": "1911.12342", "score": 32.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The dark first-order phase transition's gravitational-wave signal is only identified as an opportunity: no computation of alpha_pt and beta/H from the dark two-Higgs-doublet potential exists for this variant, so the LISA/BBO/DECIGO prediction cannot be evaluated.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the dark-sector two-Higgs-doublet finite-temperature potential in CosmoTransitions (or a comparable bounce solver), extract alpha_pt and beta/H, and convert to Omega_GW(f) using standard sound-wave and turbulence spectral fits."}, {"model_id": "2207_05096_phase_transition_hot_heavy_scalar_dm_v1", "model_name": "Hot and heavy phase-transition-produced scalar dark matter", "arxiv": "2207.05096", "score": 32, "severity": "minor", "description": "No gravitational-wave spectrum calculation exists for the specific fast-wall transitions that set this model's relic abundance: step s4 has no tool, and existing spectral fits are calibrated outside the strongly supercooled, ultra-relativistic-wall regime the production mechanism requires.", "proposed_resolution": "Compute Omega_GW(f) for the source benchmarks with the LISA-CWG spectral templates (bubble-collision plus sound-wave/turbulence fits parameterized by alpha_PT, beta/H, wall velocity) as implemented in PTPlot-style tooling, validating the collision-dominated supercooled branch against dedicated hybrid/lattice simulation results."}, {"model_id": "2212_11230_z3_singlet_type_ii_seesaw_scalar_dm_v1", "model_name": "Z3 symmetric complex singlet scalar extension of type-II seesaw", "arxiv": "2212.11230", "score": 31.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The bubble-wall velocity and friction for this Z3 singlet plus type-II seesaw scalar sector are not computed (route caveat), yet the sound-wave GW amplitude and peak frequency, and hence detectability of obs_foewpt_stochastic_gw, depend strongly on the assumed wall velocity.", "proposed_resolution": "Compute the wall velocity for representative FOEWPT benchmarks using a public friction framework (e.g. WallGo or the local-thermal-equilibrium approximation coupled to the CosmoTransitions potential) and propagate it, with alpha and beta/H, through the standard sound-wave template and LISA-band sensitivity curves (PTPlot)."}, {"model_id": "2205_08380_cp_symmetric_complex_singlet_wimp_v1", "model_name": "CP-symmetric complex-singlet WIMP with strong first-order electroweak phase transition", "arxiv": "2205.08380", "score": 31, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "GW detectability is assessed only through an approximate SNR>10 threshold against projected sensitivity curves; no reusable likelihood for the phase-transition stochastic background (marginalizing over wall velocity, T_n, alpha, beta/H_*) exists for this model.", "proposed_resolution": "Wrap the sound-wave/turbulence spectral templates and published LISA/Taiji/TianQin noise curves into a Fisher or full likelihood module (e.g. extending PTPlot/cobaya-style SGWB likelihoods) parameterized by (T_n, alpha, beta/H_*, v_w)."}], "rank_impact": 13, "rank_value": 15, "rank_structure_formation": 15}
{"project": "A subhalo-abundance-to-satellite-counts pipeline", "theme": "Milky Way satellite / subhalo-count likelihood", "deliverable": "A pipeline from a suppressed subhalo mass function to the observed Milky Way satellite luminosity function (DES/Rubin selection functions included), packaged as a likelihood any transfer function can be pushed through.", "gap_types": ["derivation", "likelihood", "simulation", "tool"], "impact": 1055.1, "impact_structure_formation": 996.7, "cost": 8.7, "value_ratio": 121.3, "n_models": 68, "n_models_structure_formation": 64, "n_gaps": 77, "effort_counts": {"large": 55, "major_program": 2, "medium": 20}, "severity_counts": {"degrades_precision": 44, "blocks_key_observables": 31, "minor": 2}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "2305_15736_heavy_scalar_decay_nonthermal_wdm_v1", "model_name": "Heavy-scalar-decay non-thermal warm dark matter", "arxiv": "2305.15736", "score": 50.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "Nonlinear predictions (subhalo mass function, satellite counts) rely on thermal-WDM-calibrated simulations through an approximate half-mode-scale matching; no N-body simulations exist for the broader, higher-momentum-peaked decay-produced spectra, so the mapping's validity outside the studied f(q) grid is uncontrolled.", "proposed_resolution": "Run a small suite of cosmological N-body simulations initialized with the modified-CLASS nonthermal transfer functions (and thermal velocities drawn from f(q)) for a few benchmark m_nonthermal values, and calibrate the subhalo mass function against the thermal-WDM equivalents to validate or correct the half-mode mapping."}, {"model_id": "1805_03203_two_state_inelastic_self_interacting_dm_v1", "model_name": "Two-state inelastic self-interacting dark matter", "arxiv": "1805.03203", "score": 46.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public likelihood exists connecting the model's predictions (density profiles, subhalo Vmax functions, local speed distribution) to data; the card lists only 'profile and subhalo summary-statistic likelihoods; no public full likelihood identified' and the elastic-SIDM constraint set explicitly requires recasting for inelastic scattering.", "proposed_resolution": "Build an emulator of core sizes, central densities, and subhalo Vmax functions over (sigma/m, Delta/m_chi, f_excited) from the simulation grid and couple it to existing Milky Way satellite and dwarf-kinematics likelihoods, replacing the elastic-equivalent recast factor with a direct inelastic-parameter constraint."}, {"model_id": "1412_1592_nrp_sterile_neutrino_mixed_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Non-resonantly produced sterile-neutrino mixed dark matter", "arxiv": "1412.1592", "score": 42, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No public spectral likelihood exists for the XMM-Newton/Chandra 3.5 keV line searches; mixing-angle constraints on the sterile subcomponent must be reconstructed from published flux limits and rescaled by r_warm.", "proposed_resolution": "Reconstruct a line-search likelihood from published X-ray flux limits and stacked spectra for the standard targets (clusters, M31, Milky Way satellites), parameterized in line energy and flux so it rescales trivially with the sterile fraction r_warm."}, {"model_id": "2005_11889_neutrino_nugget_simple_cdm_transition_v1", "model_name": "Early mass-varying sterile-neutrino nugget dark matter, simple CDM-transition variant", "arxiv": "2005.11889", "score": 41, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "Nonlinear collapse of the unstable sterile-neutrino fluid into nuggets is not simulated anywhere; the sharp small-scale cutoff in the matter power spectrum and the halo/subhalo mass function effects are only discussed qualitatively, so the shape and scale of the cutoff transfer function are uncalibrated.", "proposed_resolution": "Run dedicated simulations of the scalar-mediated instability (coupled fermion-fluid plus scalar-field dynamics, e.g. an adapted cosmological hydrodynamics or N-body plus scalar solver) to obtain the post-formation nugget mass spectrum and the calibrated cutoff transfer function as a function of m_phi and z_F."}, {"model_id": "1804_02847_multiple_sm_sector_dissipative_dm_v1", "model_name": "Dissipative dark matter from multiple Standard Model sectors", "arxiv": "1804.02847", "score": 37, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No cosmological hydrodynamic simulations exist for the N_sec-copy dissipative dark sector, so satellite abundance/planarity, the field-galaxy velocity function, and baryon-correlated halo structure predictions rest on idealized steady-state arguments (the card marks simulation_calibrated partial).", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a galaxy-formation hydrodynamics code (e.g. GIZMO or AREPO) with a second dissipative fluid carrying dark-electromagnetic cooling and kinetic-mixing supernova heating, and run zoom-in simulations of Milky-Way-like and dwarf halos across the N_sec, epsilon parameter plane."}, {"model_id": "2311_05318_dark_dimension_kk_graviton_dm_v1", "model_name": "Dark Dimension KK-graviton dark matter", "arxiv": "2311.05318", "score": 37, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No N-body simulations or calibrated nonlinear prescription exist for kick-velocity dark gravitons, which the paper states is beyond its scope; this forces the conservative linear-scale cut (k_NL,0 ~ 0.09 Mpc^-1) in the KiDS analysis and blocks any subhalo or Milky-Way satellite predictions.", "proposed_resolution": "Run N-body simulations with initial conditions and late-time velocity kicks matching the tower decay history (in the style of existing decaying-DM recoil simulations), calibrate a halofit-like nonlinear correction and subhalo mass-function suppression versus v0, enabling full-scale weak-lensing and satellite-count likelihoods."}, {"model_id": "1906_09141_fimp_decay_entropy_v1", "model_name": "Simplified light FIMP with entropy-modified decay production", "arxiv": "1906.09141", "score": 36.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The Milky Way/M31 satellite constraint is applied as a hard semi-analytic threshold N_sat > 63 with an assumed subhalo-to-galaxy occupation, not as a probabilistic likelihood, so the exclusion boundary carries unquantified galaxy-formation systematics.", "proposed_resolution": "Recast the published DES+PS1 Milky Way satellite likelihood (which marginalizes over the galaxy-halo connection) onto the FIMP alpha-beta-gamma transfer-function parameterization instead of the thermal-WDM mass axis."}, {"model_id": "1906_09141_fimp_decay_scattering_v1", "model_name": "Simplified light FIMP with decay and scattering production", "arxiv": "1906.09141", "score": 36.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The Milky Way/M31 satellite constraint is applied as a hard semi-analytic threshold N_sat > 63 with an assumed subhalo-to-galaxy occupation, not as a probabilistic likelihood, so the exclusion boundary carries unquantified galaxy-formation systematics.", "proposed_resolution": "Recast the published DES+PS1 Milky Way satellite likelihood (which marginalizes over the galaxy-halo connection) onto the FIMP alpha-beta-gamma transfer-function parameterization instead of the thermal-WDM mass axis."}, {"model_id": "1411_1071_neutrino_portal_secluded_dm_v1", "model_name": "Neutrino portal secluded dark matter", "arxiv": "1411.1071", "score": 36, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The combined effect of a damped initial power spectrum plus velocity-dependent self-interactions (1-10 cm^2/g at dwarf velocities) on satellite counts, subhalo mass functions, and dwarf central densities is uncalibrated by simulations for this model class.", "proposed_resolution": "Run ETHOS-style N-body simulations with the model's truncated transfer function and a velocity-dependent SIDM cross section to calibrate the subhalo mass function and core-size relations, then fit a semi-analytic halo-response model for parameter scans."}, {"model_id": "2305_08943_hidden_dark_matter_hidm_v1", "model_name": "Hidden dark matter cosmology (HiDM)", "arxiv": "2305.08943", "score": 35, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No N-body simulations calibrate the nonlinear (sub)halo mass function for HiDM initial conditions (the card states simulation_calibrated: no), so the transition-dependent suppression mass scale M_sup and satellite/lensing predictions rest on linear-theory extrapolation.", "proposed_resolution": "Run a small suite of cosmological N-body simulations (with thermal-velocity or suppressed-power initial conditions drawn from the HiDM transfer functions) spanning R_eq^T, and fit a halo/subhalo mass-function suppression formula analogous to existing WDM calibrations."}], "rank_impact": 14, "rank_value": 17, "rank_structure_formation": 9}
{"project": "A BBN code extension for dark-sector energy injection", "theme": "BBN code extension", "deliverable": "PRIMAT/AlterBBN-class extensions handling hadronic/electromagnetic injection, non-standard expansion and MeV-scale sectors, with a packaged likelihood.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "data", "likelihood", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 916.9, "impact_structure_formation": 337.8, "cost": 3.0, "value_ratio": 305.6, "n_models": 75, "n_models_structure_formation": 22, "n_gaps": 75, "effort_counts": {"medium": 51, "small": 19, "large": 5}, "severity_counts": {"degrades_precision": 53, "blocks_key_observables": 18, "minor": 4}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1912_05563_nonthermal_subkev_light_dark_matter_fraction_v1", "model_name": "Nonthermal sub-keV light dark matter fraction from radiative decays", "arxiv": "1912.05563", "score": 52.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No implemented pipeline connects the parent decay (E_gamma = 1.59-2.22 MeV, tau ~ 2e4 s) to a nonthermal-nucleosynthesis code, so the predicted lithium reduction and its compatibility with deuterium is asserted from the injection window rather than computed; the card notes no BBN cascade code was run and likelihood_available is 'no'.", "proposed_resolution": "Run a public electromagnetic-injection BBN code such as ACROPOLIS over the (E_gamma, tau, f m_parent/m_DM) plane for monochromatic photon injection, and wrap the output in a light-element abundance likelihood (Li7, D/H) to replace the analytic window."}, {"model_id": "0710_2968_gravitino_lsp_right_handed_sneutrino_nlsp_v1", "model_name": "Gravitino LSP dark matter with right-handed sneutrino NLSP", "arxiv": "0710.2968", "score": 37, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The BBN constraint on late Bino visible-energy injection exists only as literature bound curves read off by the authors; no machine-readable energy-injection likelihood over (tau_B, B_had Y_B E_vis) is available for this model's decay chain.", "proposed_resolution": "Evaluate the benchmark decay chains with a public BBN energy-injection code such as ACROPOLIS (hadronic and electromagnetic modes) and package the resulting light-element bounds as a reusable likelihood over (m_B, m_snuR, m_3/2, tau_B, B_had)."}, {"model_id": "1806_04488_right_sneutrino_fimp_v1", "model_name": "Right-sneutrino FIMP dark matter with long-lived stau NLSP", "arxiv": "1806.04488", "score": 36, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The BBN constraint on the stau NLSP is applied only as the crude tau_stau < 100 s criterion; light-element yields for this model's specific hadronic branching fractions are never computed, so the boundary of the allowed lifetime window is uncalibrated.", "proposed_resolution": "Compute the stau hadronic/electromagnetic decay spectra for the benchmark points and run them through a public late-decay BBN code (e.g. ACROPOLIS or AlterBBN with injection modules) to replace the flat 100 s cut with an actual light-element likelihood."}, {"model_id": "2304_09194_pbh_evaporation_gravitational_dm_fopt_v1", "model_name": "PBH-evaporation gravitational dark matter from first-order-phase-transition PBHs", "arxiv": "2304.09194", "score": 35, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No configured pipeline computes the Hawking-emitted phase-space distribution of a generic purely gravitationally coupled particle chi including greybody and spin factors for the light pre-BBN-evaporating PBHs of this model.", "proposed_resolution": "Configure BlackHawk (or an equivalent public greybody evaporation code) with an added massive BSM degree of freedom to output the chi yield and emitted momentum spectrum across the M_PBH, m_chi plane."}, {"model_id": "0710_3624_gravitino_lsp_right_handed_sneutrino_nlsp_v1", "model_name": "Gravitino LSP with right-handed sneutrino NLSP", "arxiv": "0710.3624", "score": 35, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The BBN constraint on visible energy injection from Bino-like NNLSP decay relies on historical bound curves cited by the 2007 paper rather than a current, machine-readable late-decay energy-injection constraint, so con_bbn_nnlsp_decay is only an approximate recast.", "proposed_resolution": "Feed the analytic Bino hadronic/electromagnetic injection yields (step s1) into a public late-decay BBN code such as ACROPOLIS, or substitute updated Kawasaki-Kohri-Moroi-style bound tables, to obtain current allowed/excluded regions in (tau_B, B_had Y_X E_vis)."}, {"model_id": "0709_0297_goldilocks_gravitino_dm_v1", "model_name": "Goldilocks gravitino dark matter from neutralino decays", "arxiv": "0709.0297", "score": 34.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No BBN likelihood exists for late electromagnetic and hadronic energy injection from neutralino-to-gravitino decays in this scenario; the card records only pass/fail comparisons against 2007-era decay-constraint plots, with hadronic branching fractions the dominant untreated uncertainty.", "proposed_resolution": "Recast with ACROPOLIS for electromagnetic injection and extend to hadronic injection using published Kawasaki-Moroi constraint grids, wrapping the result as a likelihood in (tau_chi, zeta_EM, zeta_had) with modern light-element abundance measurements."}, {"model_id": "2203_15813_thermal_squeezeout_zprime_dark_baryons_v1", "model_name": "Z' portal thermal squeezeout dark-baryon model", "arxiv": "2203.15813", "score": 34, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The BBN bound on late glueball decay is imposed only as a decay-before-BBN cutoff; no hadronic/electromagnetic energy-injection likelihood has been run, although the highest-mass benchmarks sit exactly at this boundary.", "proposed_resolution": "Compute the glueball decay spectra through the Z' portal and evaluate light-element constraints with a public BBN injection code such as ACROPOLIS, turning the tau_0++ boundary into a proper likelihood over (tau_0++, glueball abundance)."}, {"model_id": "2306_13799_cw_ultralight_scalar_higgs_portal_rhn_v1", "model_name": "Coleman-Weinberg ultralight scalar dark matter with GeV-scale right-handed neutrinos", "arxiv": "2306.13799", "score": 34.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No recast likelihood maps this model's (A, m_phi, m_N, theta) space onto existing fifth-force/light-scalar exclusion curves, heavy-neutral-lepton search limits, and the BBN bound on long-lived GeV-scale RHNs; the card lists likelihood_available as unknown and recasting_needed as yes for these constraints.", "proposed_resolution": "Digitize published fifth-force (Eot-Wash/MICROSCOPE-type) and scalar-Higgs-mixing limits plus HNL exclusion compilations, express them as bounds on the induced scalar-matter coupling from A and on (m_N, theta), and package them as a joint likelihood over the model parameters with the BBN lifetime cut."}, {"model_id": "1009_2959_mixed_axion_axino_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Mixed axion/axino dark matter for thermal leptogenesis", "arxiv": "1009.2959", "score": 34, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The BBN energy-injection constraint on the long-lived neutralino NLSP (lifetime, hadronic branching, abundance) is applied only by comparison to literature limit curves; no implemented pipeline computes light-element yields for the scanned PQMSSM points.", "proposed_resolution": "Wire the neutralino NLSP lifetime, abundance, and branching fractions from the spectrum calculation into an existing BBN injection code such as ACROPOLIS to produce point-by-point light-element pass/fail and the allowed T_R window."}, {"model_id": "2405_17564_fopt_rescued_self_interacting_fermion_dm_v1", "model_name": "First-order phase-transition rescued self-interacting fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "2405.17564", "score": 34, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The direct-detection (CRESST-III, XENON1T-Migdal) and mediator (LSND/CHARM beam-dump, SN1987A, BBN-lifetime) exclusion curves used in the paper are not available as digitized data products alongside the card, blocking quantitative recasting of both recast steps.", "proposed_resolution": "Digitize the published CRESST-III, XENON1T-Migdal, LSND/CHARM, and SN1987A exclusion curves (or import them from existing repositories such as the dark-photon/scalar-portal limit compilations) and store them as machine-readable constraint files keyed to (m_chi, m_phi, mixing angle)."}], "rank_impact": 15, "rank_value": 12, "rank_structure_formation": 13}
{"project": "A modern PTA stochastic-background likelihood for dark sectors", "theme": "PTA / stochastic GW background likelihood", "deliverable": "NANOGrav-15yr/EPTA-class likelihoods packaged for dark-sector sources (strings, phase transitions, superradiance) so cards stop relying on pre-2017 exclusions.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "data", "derivation", "likelihood", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 881.4, "impact_structure_formation": 131.5, "cost": 4.1, "value_ratio": 215.0, "n_models": 73, "n_models_structure_formation": 8, "n_gaps": 81, "effort_counts": {"medium": 52, "small": 17, "large": 10, "major_program": 2}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 30, "degrades_precision": 44, "minor": 7}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "2306_16966_u1_dark_photon_sidm_fopt_v1", "model_name": "U(1)' dark-photon self-interacting dark matter from a MeV first-order phase transition", "arxiv": "2306.16966", "score": 38.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No PTA stochastic-background likelihood is connected to the model's dark U(1)' phase-transition parameters; the paper compares the analytic GW spectrum to the nHz band by eye, so no statistical statement against NANOGrav/EPTA/PPTA/CPTA data is possible.", "proposed_resolution": "Wrap the FOPT spectrum Omega_GW(f; T_*, alpha, beta/H_*, v_w) in an existing public PTA analysis framework (PTArcade/ENTERPRISE with the NANOGrav 15-yr free-spectrum posteriors), sampling jointly with the CosmoTransitions map from potential parameters to transition parameters."}, {"model_id": "1609_00208_hidden_sector_phase_transition_axion_minicluster_dm_v1", "model_name": "Hidden-sector phase-transition axion minicluster dark matter", "arxiv": "1609.00208", "score": 36, "severity": "minor", "description": "The stochastic gravitational-wave background from the slow, strongly coupled hidden-sector transition is not computed anywhere in the route (the card lists the GW calculator as an unavailable required resource), so obs_hidden_phase_transition_gw cannot be evaluated.", "proposed_resolution": "Adapt standard phase-transition GW spectrum calculations (bubble-collision/sound-wave templates as in CosmoTransitions-style analyses) to the slow H Delta t ~ 1, large latent-heat regime, mapping (T_*, Delta s/s_plus, H Delta t) to a predicted spectrum and detector band."}, {"model_id": "2304_09194_pbh_evaporation_gravitational_dm_fopt_v1", "model_name": "PBH-evaporation gravitational dark matter from first-order-phase-transition PBHs", "arxiv": "2304.09194", "score": 35, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No likelihood or public sensitivity module exists for the MHz-GHz stochastic GW background from the phase transition; detectors in this band are only proposed, leaving the route's final comparison without a quantitative target.", "proposed_resolution": "Collect published projected sensitivities of proposed high-frequency GW detectors into a reusable power-law-integrated sensitivity/likelihood module for Omega_GW(f) in the MHz-GHz band applicable to FOPT spectral templates."}, {"model_id": "1912_01007_massive_dark_photon_vector_dm_v1", "model_name": "Massive dark photon from axion tachyonic production", "arxiv": "1912.01007", "score": 34.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No likelihood exists for the predicted chiral stochastic GW background: the route only overlays templates on prospective detector sensitivity curves, with no machine-readable PTA/interferometer stochastic-search likelihood.", "proposed_resolution": "Wrap the Omega_GW(f) template into existing public stochastic-background likelihoods (NANOGrav/EPTA free-spectrum and LVK isotropic stochastic searches) as a registry likelihood over (m_a, f_a, alpha_D, m_X)."}, {"model_id": "2403_09558_feebly_coupled_u1x_hidden_sector_dm_v1", "model_name": "Feebly coupled U(1)_X hidden-sector dark fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "2403.09558", "score": 34, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No gravitational-wave likelihood exists for the predicted hidden-sector FOPT spectra: detector reach is quoted only as sensitivity curves, with no LISA/DECIGO/BBO SNR-based likelihood or PTA free-spectrum likelihood applicable to the xi-suppressed Omega_GW(f) predictions.", "proposed_resolution": "Wrap the model's Omega_GW(f) output in existing stochastic-background statistical tools — PTPlot/LISA SNR calculations for future detectors and the released NANOGrav/EPTA free-spectrum likelihoods for the low-frequency tail — as a parameter-point likelihood over (m_D, m_Aprime, g_x, epsilon, xi_0, lambda_h, v_w)."}, {"model_id": "2405_17564_fopt_rescued_self_interacting_fermion_dm_v1", "model_name": "First-order phase-transition rescued self-interacting fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "2405.17564", "score": 34, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No PTA likelihood is attached: the nanohertz FOPT GW prediction is compared only qualitatively to NANOGrav-class sensitivity, with no machine-readable free-spectrum likelihood in the pipeline.", "proposed_resolution": "Interface the computed Omega_GW(f) with the public NANOGrav 15-yr (and IPTA) free-spectrum likelihoods via a PTArcade-style wrapper to obtain quantitative posteriors on (T_n, alpha, beta/H)."}, {"model_id": "2403_16568_cp_conserving_cxsm_domain_wall_dm_v1", "model_name": "CP-conserving complex singlet scalar dark matter with biased domain walls", "arxiv": "2403.16568", "score": 34, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No end-to-end public implementation ties the cxSM potential parameters to a joint numerical evaluation: a micrOMEGAs model file for the CP-conserving cxSM plus a wrapper feeding the domain-wall GW template into PTA stochastic-background likelihoods and the LZ spin-independent recast has not been released (route status planned, all recast steps have tool_or_code null).", "proposed_resolution": "Build the cxSM CalcHEP/FeynRules model file for micrOMEGAs, implement the biased-wall Omega_GW(f) template as a custom signal in a PTA analysis framework (e.g., PTArcade/ENTERPRISE with NANOGrav 15-yr data), and add the sigma_SI output to an LZ limit comparison, releasing the scan scripts."}, {"model_id": "2111_12730_kinetically_misaligned_audible_axion_dm_v1", "model_name": "Kinetically misaligned audible axion dark matter", "arxiv": "2111.12730", "score": 31, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No packaged likelihood exists for confronting the peaked audible-axion stochastic GW background with PTA, LISA, or ground-based data; only detector sensitivity curves are available for a rough SNR comparison.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the peaked audible-axion spectral template in existing SGWB analysis pipelines (e.g. PTArcade/enterprise for PTA data and the SGWBinner framework for LISA) so the model's (f_peak, Omega_GW_peak) maps directly to posterior constraints."}, {"model_id": "2303_11820_broken_u1_asymmetric_self_interacting_dm_v1", "model_name": "Spontaneously broken U(1)' asymmetric self-interacting dark matter", "arxiv": "2303.11820", "score": 31, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The dark U(1)' first-order phase transition is not implemented anywhere: no finite-temperature effective potential for the S_1/S_2 dark Higgs sector is coded, so the nucleation temperature, latent heat alpha_PT, beta/H, and the resulting GW peak frequency and amplitude cannot be computed beyond the paper's order-of-magnitude benchmark.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the two-dark-Higgs finite-temperature potential in CosmoTransitions (or an equivalent bounce solver), compute T_n, alpha_PT, and beta/H over the MeV-scale transition benchmark, and feed them into standard sound-wave/bubble-collision GW spectral templates compared against PTA and microHz-band sensitivities."}, {"model_id": "2403_06276_dark_brane_dirac_radion_dm_v1", "model_name": "Dark-brane Dirac fermion radion-mediated dark matter", "arxiv": "2403.06276", "score": 31, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The dark-brane confinement/deconfinement first-order phase transition that sources the nanoHz GW signal has no model-specific calculation in this pipeline: the radion effective potential, nucleation rate, and transition strength (alpha, beta/H) for Lambda_1 about 8-30 GeV are imported from related literature rather than computed, so the PTA observable cannot be evaluated as a function of the card's input parameters.", "proposed_resolution": "Compute the finite-temperature radion effective potential for the TeV-dark-brane interval, obtain bounce action and nucleation parameters with CosmoTransitions, feed (alpha, beta/H, T_reh) into standard sound-wave/bubble-collision GW spectral templates, and compare with the NANOGrav 15-year free-spectrum likelihood (e.g. via PTArcade)."}], "rank_impact": 16, "rank_value": 14, "rank_structure_formation": 17}
{"project": "A dark-sector phase-transition and defect computation toolkit", "theme": "Phase-transition & defect-network computation", "deliverable": "CosmoTransitions-class tooling extended to the registry's dark sectors (nucleation, GW spectra, string/wall networks) with validated defaults.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "derivation", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 758.7, "impact_structure_formation": 85.5, "cost": 5.0, "value_ratio": 151.7, "n_models": 47, "n_models_structure_formation": 5, "n_gaps": 47, "effort_counts": {"medium": 32, "large": 14, "small": 1}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 24, "degrades_precision": 17, "blocks_all_observables": 4, "minor": 2}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1910_05025_hidden_qcd_dark_meson_v1", "model_name": "Conformal hidden-QCD dark meson model", "arxiv": "1910.05025", "score": 37.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The finite-temperature NJL condensate-plus-singlet effective potential and the iterative O(3) bounce calculation that yield S3/T, T_n, alpha, and beta/H are not packaged in any public code, so the GW spectrum and DECIGO/BBO SNR cannot be recomputed away from the two quoted benchmarks.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the paper's V_eff(S, sigma, T) in CosmoTransitions or BubbleProfiler, compute the bounce action and nucleation temperature over (lambda_S, lambda_HS, y_i, Lambda_H), and chain to standard sound-wave GW formulae with the finite sound-wave-lifetime correction, validating against the BP1/BP2 beta/H and SNR values."}, {"model_id": "1907_11696_split_seesaw_bl_thermal_dilution_v1", "model_name": "split-seesaw B-L thermal sterile neutrino with entropy dilution", "arxiv": "1907.11696", "score": 37.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No first-order B-L phase-transition calculation exists for this model: the entropy-dilution factor Delta ~ O(1e2) and the momentum redshift factor are assumed inputs rather than outputs of the U(1)_B-L scalar potential, so the abundance and coldness cannot be predicted from Lagrangian parameters.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the B-L breaking potential in CosmoTransitions (or a comparable bounce/effective-potential code) to compute the transition strength, latent heat, and entropy release as functions of the B-L gauge coupling and breaking scale, yielding Delta and the reheating of the SM bath."}, {"model_id": "2403_03252_fopt_vector_dm_v1", "model_name": "First-order phase-transition vector dark matter", "arxiv": "2403.03252", "score": 35, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No gauge-invariant derivation exists for massive-vector particle production from runaway bubble collisions; the longitudinal-mode contribution is currently estimated through the Goldstone equivalence theorem with an ad hoc gauge-artifact subtraction that the primary paper says lacks a rigorous resolution, so the predicted V_mu yield carries uncontrolled theory systematics.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the bubble-collision production rate for a vector coupled through lambda_V |phi|^2 V_mu V^mu in a manifestly gauge-invariant framework (e.g. a real-time treatment in unitary and R_xi gauges with explicit cross-checks of the longitudinal-mode contribution against the equivalence-theorem estimate), and quantify the shift across the wall-gamma and m_V range."}, {"model_id": "2405_17564_fopt_rescued_self_interacting_fermion_dm_v1", "model_name": "First-order phase-transition rescued self-interacting fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "2405.17564", "score": 34, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The dark-sector finite-temperature potential (singlet FOPT scalar plus assisting complex scalar) is not implemented in any named phase-transition solver, so alpha, beta/H, and T_RH for the MeV-scale transition cannot yet be scanned.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the model's finite-temperature effective potential in CosmoTransitions (or PhaseTracer) to compute nucleation temperature, alpha, and beta/H over the parameter space, checking the BBN/CMB-safe benchmark conditions."}, {"model_id": "2403_03252_fopt_scalar_dm_v1", "model_name": "First-order phase-transition scalar dark matter", "arxiv": "2403.03252", "score": 33, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No gauge-invariant derivation exists for scalar particle production from runaway bubble collisions; the primary paper removes unphysical gauge-dependent contributions with an ad hoc prescription and explicitly states a rigorous resolution is lacking, so the predicted phi_s yield carries uncontrolled theory systematics.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the bubble-collision production rate for a quartic-coupled scalar (lambda_s phi^2 phi_s^2 / 4) in a manifestly gauge-invariant framework (e.g. a real-time lattice treatment of the colliding field configurations with explicit gauge-cancellation checks), and quantify the shift relative to the paper's prescription across the wall-gamma and m_S range."}, {"model_id": "1909_03627_hidden_monopole_axion_portal_v1", "model_name": "Hidden monopole dark matter via axion portal", "arxiv": "1909.03627", "score": 32.9, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The monopole relic fraction rests on a Kibble-Zurek estimate with order-of-magnitude uncertainty from the critical exponent and monopole-antimonopole annihilation modeling; no simulation-calibrated prediction of hidden SU(2) monopole production at a second-order phase transition exists for this parameter range.", "proposed_resolution": "Run classical-statistical lattice field-theory simulations of the SU(2)_H second-order phase transition (Kibble-Zurek defect formation plus subsequent monopole-antimonopole annihilation) to calibrate the relic-fraction formula against the critical exponent used in the benchmark."}, {"model_id": "1710_09846_neutrinophilic_singlet_ds_m1_v1", "model_name": "Neutrinophilic singlet dark matter DS_M1", "arxiv": "1710.09846", "score": 29.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No dark-sector thermal-history solver covers the singlet phase-transition timing and the BBN/recombination light-species bookkeeping for the keV-scale S and phi/a states, leaving the bbn_cmb_singlet_mass_constraint and dark_phase_transition_timing checks qualitative.", "proposed_resolution": "Analyze the singlet scalar potential with CosmoTransitions to bound the phase-transition temperature, and track the light-singlet energy density through neutrino decoupling with a coupled dark-sector temperature evolution code to compute Delta N_eff at BBN and recombination for comparison with Planck/BBN limits."}, {"model_id": "2207_02230_fermion_mediated_bubble_expansion_dm_v1", "model_name": "Fermion-mediated dark matter from bubble expansion", "arxiv": "2207.02230", "score": 29, "severity": "blocks_all_observables", "description": "No released implementation of the singlet-assisted electroweak finite-temperature effective potential with bounce/nucleation calculation plus bubble-wall friction exists for this model, so T_nuc, transition strength, and whether the wall reaches the ultra-relativistic branch cannot be computed, and everything downstream depends on these outputs.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the SM + real singlet finite-temperature potential in CosmoTransitions (or a modern equivalent bounce solver), add the leading-order and NLO friction pressure terms to solve for gamma_w, and validate against the paper's benchmark table of nucleation temperatures and wall regimes."}, {"model_id": "2310_08526_recycled_ultraheavy_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Recycled ultra-heavy dark matter", "arxiv": "2310.08526", "score": 28.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public calculator exists for false-vacuum pocket statistics, particle trapping, and the filtered relic fraction in a dark-sector first-order phase transition; the paper relies on a custom semi-analytic pocket model.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a public FOPT pocket/trapping module on top of CosmoTransitions-style bubble-nucleation output, parameterized by m/T_*, bubble-wall velocity, and portal thermal-contact rate, outputting trapped and filtered fractions."}, {"model_id": "1601_01681_stiff_scalar_field_dm_ewbg_v1", "model_name": "Stiff-era scalar field dark matter for electroweak baryogenesis", "arxiv": "1601.01681", "score": 28.2, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No tool computes the actual baryon yield for electroweak baryogenesis in a nonstandard stiff-era expansion history: the route only checks the sphaleron washout condition with enhanced H(T), and existing EWBG transport/sphaleron-rate codes assume radiation-dominated expansion.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a finite-temperature EWPT pipeline (CosmoTransitions for the |H|^6 potential plus standard transport equations for the CP-violating source) to take an arbitrary H(T) from the SFDM background integrator, outputting the surviving baryon asymmetry and the washout factor as functions of (Lambda, rho_sfdm/rho_rad)."}], "rank_impact": 17, "rank_value": 16, "rank_structure_formation": 19}
{"project": "A targeted non-CDM simulation campaign with public halo products", "theme": "N-body / hydrodynamic simulation campaign", "deliverable": "A coordinated N-body/hydro campaign spanning the registry's recurring non-CDM physics (velocity-dependent SIDM, decays, late-forming DM), releasing halo catalogs and calibrations others can build likelihoods on.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "derivation", "likelihood", "simulation", "tool"], "impact": 675.9, "impact_structure_formation": 474.5, "cost": 13.0, "value_ratio": 52.0, "n_models": 40, "n_models_structure_formation": 26, "n_gaps": 41, "effort_counts": {"major_program": 9, "large": 24, "medium": 8}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_all_observables": 2, "degrades_precision": 18, "blocks_key_observables": 21}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1911_13281_n_machos_v1", "model_name": "N MACHOs", "arxiv": "1911.13281", "score": 47, "severity": "blocks_all_observables", "description": "No quantitative N-MACHO formation calculation exists: the conversion of hidden-sector particles into compact objects via cooling and collapse in high-density regions (ultra-compact minihalos or an early matter-dominated era) is only sketched, so neither the mass function nor the compact fraction f_compact can be predicted from (N, sector abundances).", "proposed_resolution": "Run hydrodynamic/cooling collapse simulations (or a calibrated semi-analytic cooling-versus-free-fall model) of SM-copy hidden sectors in ultra-compact minihalo and early matter-dominated environments, outputting a mass function and formation efficiency parameterized by N and sector energy fractions."}, {"model_id": "1810_09474_unified_superfluid_dark_sector_v1", "model_name": "Unified superfluid dark sector", "arxiv": "1810.09474", "score": 41, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public halo phase-structure solver computes the superfluid core radius and normal-phase envelope as a function of halo mass and dark-sector thermodynamics for this two-state model, and no rotation-curve pipeline links the phonon-mediated force to galaxy data.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a semi-analytic halo phase solver (hydrostatic superfluid core matched to an NFW-like normal-phase envelope, following the superfluid-DM literature prescriptions cited by the paper) with the two-state populations included, and couple it to a standard rotation-curve fitter over SPARC-like galaxy samples."}, {"model_id": "1804_10249_six_flavor_quark_matter_nugget_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Six-flavor quark matter nugget dark matter", "arxiv": "1804.10249", "score": 39.75, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The nugget mass function rests on an unmodeled phase-transition history: no calculation exists of bubble nucleation, pocket size R_i, and pocket trapping for a first-order six-flavor QCD transition under electroweak supercooling, nor of nugget evaporation/survival during cooling, leaving the benchmark M_nugget ~ 1e10 g and R_nugget ~ 1e2 cm uncertain by orders of magnitude.", "proposed_resolution": "Compute the supercooled electroweak transition for the benchmark scalar potential with CosmoTransitions (nucleation temperature, bubble spacing), then run hydrodynamic simulations of quark-pocket shrinkage and baryon-number trapping through the six-flavor QCD transition, coupled to an evaporation-rate derivation, to produce a predictive nugget mass function beta(M_nugget)."}, {"model_id": "1804_02847_multiple_sm_sector_dissipative_dm_v1", "model_name": "Dissipative dark matter from multiple Standard Model sectors", "arxiv": "1804.02847", "score": 37, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public solver exists for dissipative dark-plasma halo steady states implementing the paper's local heating-equals-cooling and hydrostatic-balance equations with dark bremsstrahlung/atomic cooling functions and kinetic-mixing supernova heating.", "proposed_resolution": "Develop a semi-analytic steady-state halo code that takes a baryonic mass model and star-formation history, computes the kinetic-mixing supernova heating rate H and dark-plasma cooling rate C as functions of N_sec, epsilon, and dark metallicity, and solves the coupled hydrostatic profile, validated against the paper's N_sec=5, epsilon~1.2e-10 examples."}, {"model_id": "1311_4034_early_matter_domination_daughter_wimp_v1", "model_name": "Early matter domination with nearly degenerate daughter WIMP dark matter", "arxiv": "1311.4034", "score": 36.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No calibrated N-body or semi-analytic model exists for the formation, internal structure, and late-time tidal survival of EMD microhalos seeded by this model's enhanced power spectrum with daughter velocity dispersion included.", "proposed_resolution": "Run a suite of zoom N-body simulations of microhalo formation from EMD-enhanced power spectra (varying T_RH, f_b, and cutoff scale), calibrate a semi-analytic microhalo mass function, concentration, and tidal-survival model on them, and release it as a fitting-function module."}, {"model_id": "2403_09558_feebly_coupled_u1x_hidden_sector_dm_v1", "model_name": "Feebly coupled U(1)_X hidden-sector dark fermion dark matter", "arxiv": "2403.09558", "score": 34, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The GW amplitude relies on hydrodynamic fitting formulae calibrated to visible-sector transitions; the bubble wall velocity and sound-wave efficiency for a transition in a colder, feebly coupled hidden plasma (friction only from hidden species) are uncalibrated inputs scanned as free parameters.", "proposed_resolution": "Compute the bubble wall velocity from hidden-sector friction (extending existing wall-velocity codes to the U(1)_X particle content) and recalibrate kappa_sw efficiency factors with hydrodynamic simulations for the relevant alpha and xi range, replacing the flat v_w in (0,1) scan."}, {"model_id": "2302_00010_axion_quark_nugget_dm_v1", "model_name": "Axion quark nugget dark matter", "arxiv": "2302.00010", "score": 33.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No validated N-body/hydrodynamic or radiative-transfer pipeline implements the environment-dependent AQN-baryon coupling (card caveat: no such pipeline supplied; simulation_calibrated: no), so the claimed morphology changes in dense environments and any small-scale-structure predictions remain qualitative speculation.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the AQN geometric drag/annihilation coupling as an effective dark-matter-baryon interaction module in a cosmological hydro code (e.g. an AREPO/GIZMO subgrid model scaling as n_baryon * v * pi R^2 * kappa) and run zoom-in simulations of galactic centers and dense clouds to produce falsifiable structure predictions."}, {"model_id": "1806_04293_earth_shielded_plasma_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Earth-shielded plasma dark matter", "arxiv": "1806.04293", "score": 32.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The density and geometry of the captured Earth-bound dark-matter component, which dominate the shielding uncertainty, are assumed rather than computed: no capture-and-accumulation simulation predicts n_He_prime(R_E) or its asphericity from the halo plasma parameters.", "proposed_resolution": "Simulate capture, thermalization, and hydrostatic accumulation of dark ions in and around the Earth (dissipative dark-plasma fluid or N-body-with-cooling treatment) as a function of epsilon and halo composition, to predict the Earth-bound density profile and its day-night geometry instead of assuming 1e12-1e13 cm^-3 at the surface."}, {"model_id": "2311_18086_mirror_star_optically_thin_nugget_v1", "model_name": "Optically thin mirror-star nugget emission model", "arxiv": "2311.18086", "score": 32.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The local mirror-star number density is unpredicted: no simulation of dissipative atomic/twin-baryon cooling, fragmentation, and mirror-star formation efficiency connects the underlying dark-sector parameters to a population, so per-object spectra cannot be converted into expected Gaia or X-ray detection rates.", "proposed_resolution": "Run hydrodynamic simulations of dissipative atomic-dark-matter collapse (extending existing atomic-DM cooling simulation work) to derive a mirror-star formation efficiency and mass function versus atomic-DM fraction, yielding a local number-density prior for the search likelihood."}, {"model_id": "1106_0536_scalar_decay_reheating_cdm_v1", "model_name": "Scalar-decay-produced cold dark matter after low-temperature reheating", "arxiv": "1106.0536", "score": 32, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The predicted microhalo mass function and present-day survival fraction are not simulation-calibrated: the Press-Schechter estimate at Earth-mass to 0.1 solar-mass scales and the claim that many early-forming microhalos survive tidal disruption in galactic halos are unverified.", "proposed_resolution": "Run zoom-in N-body simulations seeded with the reheating-enhanced power spectrum for representative T_RH values to calibrate the microhalo mass function, concentrations, and tidal-survival fractions to z=0."}], "rank_impact": 18, "rank_value": 20, "rank_structure_formation": 12}
{"project": "A 21-cm signal modeling and likelihood package for non-CDM", "theme": "21-cm signal modeling & likelihood", "deliverable": "21cmFAST-class modeling plus EDGES/HERA/SKA likelihoods for models altering the timing of structure formation or injecting energy.", "gap_types": ["data", "likelihood", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 533.6, "impact_structure_formation": 119.7, "cost": 5.1, "value_ratio": 104.6, "n_models": 28, "n_models_structure_formation": 8, "n_gaps": 39, "effort_counts": {"medium": 30, "large": 8, "major_program": 1}, "severity_counts": {"degrades_precision": 10, "minor": 3, "blocks_key_observables": 23, "blocks_all_observables": 3}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1803_02804_millicharged_subcomponent_lmutau_depletion_v1", "model_name": "Millicharged dark matter subcomponent with L_mu-L_tau vector depletion", "arxiv": "1803.02804", "score": 37, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public code computes the cosmic-dawn baryon/dark-matter coupled thermal history for a millicharged subcomponent (fraction f_DM with Coulomb-like velocity-dependent scattering) through to the global 21-cm brightness temperature; the scattering_cooling step has no implementation.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the coupled T_b, T_chi, v_rel evolution equations for f_DM-fraction Coulomb-type (v^-4) scattering as a standalone ODE module or an extension of a global 21-cm code such as 21cmFAST/ARES, validated against the Munoz-Loeb published cooling curves."}, {"model_id": "1703_02338_pseudoscalar_hidden_neutrino_dm_v1", "model_name": "Pseudo-scalar mediator dark matter with hidden neutrinos", "arxiv": "1703.02338", "score": 36, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No nonlinear structure-formation calibration exists for transfer functions with enhanced/oscillatory DAO peaks that overshoot CDM power; halo-mass-function prescriptions are calibrated on suppressed or CDM-like spectra, blocking the mapping from the linear spectrum to low-mass halo abundance and the 21 cm signal.", "proposed_resolution": "Run a suite of N-body simulations with initial conditions drawn from the model's oscillatory enhanced transfer functions, calibrate a modified sharp-k/smooth-k halo-mass-function prescription against them, and couple the result to a semi-numerical 21 cm code (e.g. a 21cmFAST-class model) for cosmic-dawn predictions."}, {"model_id": "1210_0191_nonthermal_warm_wino_lsp_v1", "model_name": "Nonthermal warm wino LSP dark matter", "arxiv": "1210.0191", "score": 35.2, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The predicted imprint sits at k > 100 Mpc^-1, beyond current data; the proposed probe is high-redshift (z ~ 30-200) 21 cm fluctuations, for which no dataset or forward-model likelihood at these scales exists.", "proposed_resolution": "Develop a dark-ages 21 cm power-spectrum forward model reaching k > 100 Mpc^-1 with a suppression-template likelihood, ready for future lunar/space-based 21 cm arrays."}, {"model_id": "1803_02804_millicharged_hidden_scalar_depletion_v1", "model_name": "Millicharged Dirac dark matter with hidden-scalar depletion", "arxiv": "1803.02804", "score": 35, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public code computes the cosmic-dawn baryon/dark-matter coupled thermal history for a millicharged subcomponent (fraction f_DM with Coulomb-like velocity-dependent scattering) through to the global 21-cm brightness temperature; the scattering_cooling step has no implementation.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the coupled T_b, T_chi, v_rel evolution equations for f_DM-fraction Coulomb-type (v^-4) scattering as a standalone ODE module or an extension of a global 21-cm code such as 21cmFAST/ARES, validated against the Munoz-Loeb published cooling curves."}, {"model_id": "2305_08943_hidden_dark_matter_hidm_v1", "model_name": "Hidden dark matter cosmology (HiDM)", "arxiv": "2305.08943", "score": 35, "severity": "minor", "description": "No forward model or likelihood connects HiDM small-halo suppression to the global 21 cm absorption signal; the primary paper flags large astrophysical uncertainties and does not build this likelihood.", "proposed_resolution": "Couple HiDM matter power spectra to a seminumeric cosmic-dawn code (21cmFAST-style) with marginalized star-formation parameters to produce global-signal predictions, and compare against EDGES/SARAS-class measurements."}, {"model_id": "1803_10096_charge_sequestration_charged_x_dm_v1", "model_name": "Charge-sequestration charged-X dark matter", "arxiv": "1803.10096", "score": 34.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public recombination/thermal-history code includes a stable sequestered negative charge epsilon_X r_X in the charge-neutrality condition, so the suppressed free-electron fraction x_e(z), earlier baryon cooling T_g(z), and resulting global 21 cm brightness temperature T_21 cannot be computed with released tools.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend HyRec or the RECFAST module in CLASS to solve the recombination network with x_p = x_e + epsilon_X r_X and the modified Compton/adiabatic cooling of the gas, then feed x_e(z), T_g(z) into a global 21 cm calculator (e.g. ARES) to produce T_21(z) at cosmic dawn; validate against the epsilon_X r_X ~ 1e-4 benchmark of the paper."}, {"model_id": "2302_00010_axion_quark_nugget_dm_v1", "model_name": "Axion quark nugget dark matter", "arxiv": "2302.00010", "score": 33.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No likelihood or defined data vector exists for the proposed AQN broadband energy-injection signals (diffuse UV, EBL, radio, EDGES-like 21-cm absorption); the card explicitly states these connections are proposed interpretations with no likelihood supplied, so the diffuse-radiation observable cannot be statistically evaluated at all.", "proposed_resolution": "Define per-band data vectors (GALEX diffuse-UV maps, EBL measurements, ARCADE-2/LWA radio monopole, EDGES/SARAS 21-cm) with a forward model combining the AQN flux, an ISM/CGM gas-density model, and the electrosphere emissivity, and build a joint likelihood with the astrophysical foregrounds marginalized."}, {"model_id": "1907_06533_poisson_pbh_velocity_floor_v1", "model_name": "Poisson primordial-black-hole dark matter with small-scale velocity floor", "arxiv": "1907.06533", "score": 33, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No 21 cm or low-redshift accretion likelihood exists that includes the PBH internal velocity floor: the paper argues existing z ~ 20 accretion bounds (21 cm, dwarf-galaxy environments) are too strong when internal velocities are neglected, but no likelihood was rerun and no packaged recast exists.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a 21 cm global-signal/power-spectrum likelihood for accreting PBHs (interfacing the velocity-averaged injection history with a dark-ages thermal-history code such as 21cmFAST or a global-signal solver, constrained by EDGES/SARAS limits and forecast HERA sensitivity) and re-derive the low-redshift f_PBH bounds with sigma_PBH included."}, {"model_id": "2110_05790_oscillon_alp_fuzzy_dm_v1", "model_name": "Oscillon-forming axion-like fuzzy dark matter", "arxiv": "2110.05790", "score": 31, "severity": "minor", "description": "The SKA-era 21 cm anisotropy signature from oscillon Poisson fluctuations has no forecast machinery: no power-spectrum module for the oscillon shot-noise contribution and no associated instrument likelihood.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the oscillon Poisson-power term (set by r_osc and the oscillon mass scale k_osc) in a 21 cm power-spectrum code (21cmFAST-class) and build a Fisher/likelihood forecast for SKA-like noise curves."}, {"model_id": "1311_2162_bino_wino_coannihilation_v1", "model_name": "Bino-wino co-annihilation dark matter in high-scale SUSY", "arxiv": "1311.2162", "score": 30.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No likelihood exists for the mixed cold+warm small-scale power suppression at k_fs ~ 10^3-10^4 Mpc^-1; the card explicitly notes no 21 cm likelihood is supplied for the proposed z ~ 30-200 tomography probe.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a high-redshift 21 cm power-spectrum likelihood (or Fisher forecast module) for suppression at k ~ 10^3-10^4 Mpc^-1, parameterized by warm fraction r_warm and free-streaming scale k_fs, usable for this and other mixed cold+warm models."}], "rank_impact": 19, "rank_value": 18, "rank_structure_formation": 18}
{"project": "A light-mediator constraint compilation with proper likelihoods", "theme": "Dark-photon / light-mediator constraint recast", "deliverable": "A maintained, recastable compilation of dark-photon/fifth-force/light-scalar constraints (beyond static exclusion plots) mapped to arbitrary coupling structures.", "gap_types": ["derivation", "likelihood", "simulation", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 191.2, "impact_structure_formation": 62.2, "cost": 4.8, "value_ratio": 39.8, "n_models": 13, "n_models_structure_formation": 4, "n_gaps": 15, "effort_counts": {"small": 7, "large": 2, "medium": 5, "major_program": 1}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 7, "degrades_precision": 8}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "2312_06889_axion_su2_vector_dm_v1", "model_name": "Axion-SU(2) inflation vector boson dark matter", "arxiv": "2312.06889", "score": 34.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No worked recast maps published dark-photon dark-matter limits onto this model: the effective kinetic mixing epsilon ~ lambda m^2/(g^2 f^2) applies to only one of three degenerate SU(2) components, so limits must be rescaled by component fraction and degeneracy-breaking assumptions, and the cluster sigma/m ~ g^4/m^3 comparison is only a dimensional estimate with unquantified wave-regime corrections.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the mixed-component energy fraction and effective epsilon across the (m, g, f) plane, rescale existing dark-photon DM absorption/haloscope exclusions by that fraction, and compute the actual non-Abelian vector self-scattering cross section (including wave-regime suppression at low m) for comparison with cluster sigma/m bounds."}, {"model_id": "1912_01007_massive_dark_photon_vector_dm_v1", "model_name": "Massive dark photon from axion tachyonic production", "arxiv": "1912.01007", "score": 34.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public, validated lattice simulation exists for tachyonic production of a massive dark photon from an oscillating ALP condensate (m_X up to m_a/2, alpha_D ~ 10-100 with backreaction), so the vector occupation spectrum that sets Omega_X, gamma_eq, and the GW source is only estimated analytically; the paper's improved Python code is not released.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend a public lattice framework such as CosmoLattice with the phi X Xdual coupling and a Stueckelberg/Proca mass term, and tabulate final vector spectra, relic fractions, and GW spectra over (m_X/m_a, alpha_D, f_a) validated against the published templates."}, {"model_id": "1201_4988_light_decoupled_techni_dilaton_v1", "model_name": "Light decoupled techni-dilaton dark matter", "arxiv": "1201.4988", "score": 28, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No digitized likelihood or exclusion tables exist in the card for the diffuse X-ray bound on the eV-scale TD two-photon decay (only quoted upper masses of about 140-460 eV) or for sub-millimeter inverse-square-law/fifth-force searches, so the decay_and_detection step cannot be closed at experiment level.", "proposed_resolution": "Digitize diffuse/background X-ray decaying-dark-matter bounds in the 0.01-500 eV mass window into a tau_TD(M_TD) likelihood table, and import published torsion-balance and microsphere Yukawa exclusion curves as an (alpha, lambda) likelihood, wiring both into the route as the missing external likelihoods."}, {"model_id": "2311_17157_light_vector_simp_dark_pion_v1", "model_name": "Light-vector-meson dark pion SIMP model", "arxiv": "2311.17157", "score": 28, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public dark-shower configuration exists for this spectrum: a Pythia8 Hidden Valley setup with mass-degenerate dark quarks, stable dark pions, and dark rho mesons that decay only to SM particles through kinetic mixing (m_rho < 2 m_pi), including hadronization tuning for the confining SU(N_c) sector.", "proposed_resolution": "Build and publish a Pythia8 Hidden Valley card set for this model (N_c, N_f, m_pi, m_rho, f_pi, epsilon), fixing the visible/invisible fractions and rho lifetime consistently with the thermalisation lower bound on the portal width."}, {"model_id": "1609_06320_radion_misalignment_dm_v1", "model_name": "Radion misalignment dark matter in a five-dimensional weak-scale framework", "arxiv": "1609.06320", "score": 26, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No reusable likelihoods or digitized exclusion curves exist for the constraints this route compares against: atomic-clock/Dy-spectroscopy oscillatory-constant limits, fifth-force/equivalence-principle bounds, and black-hole superradiance regions are available only as figure-level overlays, and every constraint entry records likelihood_available no/unknown with recasting_needed yes.", "proposed_resolution": "Digitize the published clock/spectroscopy, fifth-force/EP, and superradiance exclusion curves in the (m_r, coupling) plane and package them as likelihood or limit tables that include the sqrt(rho_r/rho_0) subcomponent rescaling the card specifies, so the route can be run for arbitrary radion density fractions."}, {"model_id": "2006_15672_scalar_freeze_in_inelastic_dm_v1", "model_name": "Scalar freeze-in inelastic dark matter with dark photon portal", "arxiv": "2006.15672", "score": 25, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The SN1987A cooling constraint enters only as a quoted analytic bound on epsilon; no supernova transport calculation or likelihood covers this model's dark photon plus light dark-sector states (which open trapping/re-absorption channels), and the bound is unreliable outside the MeV mediator window.", "proposed_resolution": "Rerun a supernova energy-loss calculation (following the Chang-Essig-McDermott style dark-photon luminosity treatment) including production and trapping of the dark photon with its decay to the split scalar pair, and publish the resulting exclusion as an (epsilon, m_V, e_D) mask usable as a route overlay."}, {"model_id": "2209_10563_conformal_freeze_in_composite_dark_pion_v1", "model_name": "Conformal freeze-in composite dark-pion dark matter", "arxiv": "2209.10563", "score": 24.2, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "Stellar emission rates of dark-sector states through the suppressed portal have not been calculated for this model, so stellar-cooling bounds on light benchmarks cannot be evaluated beyond threshold arithmetic.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive dark-sector emission rates from stellar plasmas (plasmon mixing into the composite dark photon and CFT-state pair emission) as a function of (T_S, m_gap, epsilon), then compare against standard HB/RGB/SN energy-loss budgets to obtain cooling exclusions."}, {"model_id": "2111_01164_scalar_vector_inelastic_coannihilation_dm_v1", "model_name": "Scalar-vector inelastic coannihilation dark matter model", "arxiv": "2111.01164", "score": 24, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public UFO/FeynRules implementation of the scalar-vector inelastic model (s1, s2, dark photon A prime with kinetic mixing and the dark-current coupling) is identified, so event generation for A prime-mediated s1 s2 production and lifetime cross-checks cannot be rerun.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the U(1)_D Lagrangian with Stueckelberg/kinetic mixing and the s1-s2 dark current in FeynRules, export UFO files, validate against the paper's m_Aprime = 3 m2 benchmark decay lengths, and publish the model files."}, {"model_id": "2307_14053_b3_l2_dirac_rh_neutrino_thermal_dm_v1", "model_name": "B_3-L_2 Dirac right-handed-neutrino thermal dark matter", "arxiv": "2307.14053", "score": 21, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No reusable Borexino Phase-II solar-neutrino electron-recoil likelihood exists for a light Z' with kinetic mixing, so the epsilon bound at the g_X = 1.8e-4, m_Z' = 1 MeV benchmark cannot be recomputed or extended across the parameter space.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the Borexino Phase-II recoil spectrum fit as an open likelihood module: published Borexino event rates and efficiencies combined with standard solar fluxes and oscillation probabilities, taking (epsilon, g_X, m_Z') as inputs to the SM-plus-Z' neutrino-electron cross section."}, {"model_id": "1003_2313_sub_ev_scalar_higgs_portal_dm_v1", "model_name": "Sub-eV scalar dark matter through the super-renormalizable Higgs portal", "arxiv": "1003.2313", "score": 19, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No machine-readable fifth-force or equivalence-principle likelihood exists for the super-renormalizable Higgs-portal parameterization (A, m_phi); the paper's exclusions are plotted bounds, so quantitative recasts require digitized experimental curves that are not supplied.", "proposed_resolution": "Digitize the torsion-balance inverse-square-law (Eot-Wash style) and equivalence-principle (including MICROSCOPE) exclusion curves as (Yukawa strength alpha, range lambda) likelihood tables, then map (A, m_phi) onto (alpha, lambda) with published Higgs-nucleon couplings and composition factors so the excluded portal region is reproduced as a reusable likelihood."}], "rank_impact": 20, "rank_value": 22, "rank_structure_formation": 22}
{"project": "An isocurvature constraint pipeline", "theme": "Isocurvature machinery", "deliverable": "From a model's isocurvature production mechanism to Planck isocurvature likelihoods, for axion-like and multi-field scenarios.", "gap_types": ["derivation", "likelihood", "tool"], "impact": 184.9, "impact_structure_formation": 39.8, "cost": 2.8, "value_ratio": 66.0, "n_models": 16, "n_models_structure_formation": 4, "n_gaps": 16, "effort_counts": {"medium": 14, "small": 2}, "severity_counts": {"minor": 1, "degrades_precision": 9, "blocks_key_observables": 6}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1310_1774_higgs_portal_png_domain_wall_hot_cold_dm_v1", "model_name": "Higgs-portal pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone hot-and-cold dark matter", "arxiv": "1310.1774", "score": 38.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The small-scale isocurvature/ultracompact-minihalo constraint on late-annihilating walls is applied only as the qualitative H_decay > 22 eV threshold; no derivation exists of the isocurvature power spectrum sourced by the wall network for this model, so the exclusion boundary cannot be computed quantitatively.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the pNG isocurvature power spectrum from wall-network annihilation (analytically or from the lattice outputs of the network simulation) and confront it with published ultracompact-minihalo and CMB small-scale constraints to replace the single H_decay threshold."}, {"model_id": "2305_13381_spin2_inflationary_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Spin-2 dark matter from inflation", "arxiv": "2305.13381", "score": 28, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The CMB isocurvature bound is applied through an order-of-magnitude estimate whose mapping from spin-2 spectator perturbations to observed isocurvature the paper explicitly leaves beyond scope for order-one sound speeds and EFT coefficients, so viability in that regime cannot be judged.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the spin-2-induced dark-matter isocurvature power spectrum from the mode functions (including scalar-helicity mixing with curvature perturbations at order-one couplings), and confront it with the Planck 2018 CDM-isocurvature likelihood to delimit the allowed (m, c_I, EFT-coefficient) space."}, {"model_id": "2309_14993_stiff_reheating_pbh_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Primordial black-hole dark matter from stiff-era reheating collapse", "arxiv": "2309.14993", "score": 25.5, "severity": "minor", "description": "The predicted small-scale baryon-to-photon fluctuation spectrum delta eta_B(k) is never converted into an observational likelihood (BBN/CMB constraints on baryon isocurvature or inhomogeneous nucleosynthesis), so this observable cannot be evaluated against data.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the mapping from delta eta_B(k) to light-element abundance scatter and CMB baryon-isocurvature limits, and implement it as a bound on the scalar peak amplitude using existing inhomogeneous-BBN calculations."}, {"model_id": "1603_06242_planck_suppressed_higgs_oscillating_scalar_v1", "model_name": "Planck-suppressed Higgs-coupled oscillating scalar dark matter", "arxiv": "1603.06242", "score": 24.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No likelihood implementation exists for the model's joint CMB test: the beta_iso < 0.037 isocurvature bound and the tensor-to-scalar constraint are only quoted numbers, so the m_phi-r relation and the m_eff/H_inf isocurvature suppression cannot be statistically confronted with Planck/BICEP-Keck data.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the model relations (phi_i = alpha H_inf, Omega_phi(m_phi, phi_i), residual isocurvature as a function of m_eff/H_inf) as a theory module in Cobaya/MontePython and sample against the Planck plus BICEP-Keck tensor and CDM-isocurvature likelihoods."}, {"model_id": "1603_06242_rs_bulk_scalar_higgs_oscillating_dm_v1", "model_name": "Randall-Sundrum bulk-scalar oscillating dark matter", "arxiv": "1603.06242", "score": 24.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No likelihood implementation exists for the model's joint CMB test: the beta_iso < 0.037 isocurvature bound and the tensor-to-scalar constraint are only quoted numbers, so the m_phi-r relation and the isocurvature suppression from the Hubble-scale inflationary mass cannot be statistically confronted with Planck/BICEP-Keck data.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the RS relations (phi_i = alpha H_inf, Omega_phi(m_phi, phi_i), m_phi from the warp factor, residual isocurvature versus m_eff/H_inf) as a theory module in Cobaya/MontePython and sample against the Planck plus BICEP-Keck tensor and CDM-isocurvature likelihoods."}, {"model_id": "2110_04322_nonminimal_ultralight_axion_cdm_v1", "model_name": "Non-minimally coupled ultra-light axion cold dark matter", "arxiv": "2110.04322", "score": 23.5, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No likelihood pipeline exists for this model: the BBN dark-radiation bound is qualitative (exact exponent not recovered) and the matter-power bound xi < 0.01 is an approximate adiabatic-only figure comparison with no reusable likelihood, so neither constraint can be evaluated statistically or extended to mixed initial conditions.", "proposed_resolution": "Couple the modified solver from gap_1 to Cobaya/MontePython with the public Planck, BAO, and full-shape galaxy power-spectrum likelihoods plus a BBN Neff likelihood, scanning (xi, m_phi, phi_i) for adiabatic, isocurvature, and mixed initial conditions to replace the approximate xi bound."}, {"model_id": "hep-ph9809547_bosonic_superheavy_x_vacuum_dm_v1", "model_name": "Bosonic superheavy X-particle from vacuum fluctuations", "arxiv": "hep-ph/9809547", "score": 21.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The isocurvature perturbation spectrum of the gravitationally produced X component has not been derived for this model, so the s4 likelihood step has no model-side input to compare against CMB isocurvature bounds despite a partial data-side likelihood existing.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the X-density isocurvature power spectrum from the mode functions of the production calculation as a function of (m_X/H_I, xi), following the treatment in the related isocurvature-constraint literature, and map it onto the Planck CDI amplitude parameter for use with the existing Planck isocurvature likelihood."}, {"model_id": "hep-ph9903542_superheavy_inflation_relic_x_v1", "model_name": "Inflation-produced superheavy X-particle dark matter", "arxiv": "hep-ph/9903542", "score": 21.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The X-density isocurvature amplitude from inflationary gravitational production has not been derived as a function of (m_X, H_I, xi) in a form that plugs into the public Planck isocurvature likelihood, so the CMB constraint cannot be evaluated.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the CDM-isocurvature power spectrum of gravitationally produced X particles (following the 2005.00391-style formalism) parameterized by m_X/H_I and xi, and run it through the Planck 2018 CDI isocurvature likelihood via Cobaya/MontePython."}, {"model_id": "2004_06106_rapid_turn_multifield_pbh_dm_v1", "model_name": "Rapid-turn multifield inflation seeded primordial black holes", "arxiv": "2004.06106", "score": 21, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No numerical multifield perturbation pipeline is attached that evolves curvature and isocurvature modes through the rapid-turn history on the curved target space and outputs the enhanced P_zeta(k), so the O(1e7) enhancement rests on analytic estimates alone.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the two-field action with target-space metric gamma_ab(phi) in a public transport-method solver (PyTransport or MultiModeCode), parameterized by turn rate, Delta theta, Delta N, and feature scale k, and validate the analytic enhancement formula against the numerical P_zeta(k)."}, {"model_id": "astro-ph0408448_long_lived_radion_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Long-lived radion dark matter in Randall-Sundrum cosmology", "arxiv": "astro-ph/0408448", "score": 20.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "Only WMAP-era, curvaton-analogy constraints exist for the radion-induced effective baryon isocurvature; no modern (Planck-level) CMB likelihood evaluation of the S_eff and correlated curvature contribution has been performed for this model.", "proposed_resolution": "Map the computed correlated curvature/isocurvature spectra onto the standard CDI/BDI amplitude parameterization and evaluate against the public Planck 2018 (or later) isocurvature likelihood to update the allowed (M_R, Omega_R/Omega_M, alpha_R) region."}], "rank_impact": 21, "rank_value": 19, "rank_structure_formation": 24}
{"project": "A compact-object capture and heating calculator", "theme": "Compact-object capture & heating", "deliverable": "A public calculator for DM capture, thermalization and heating in neutron stars/white dwarfs, with observational comparison to cooling data.", "gap_types": ["derivation", "likelihood", "theory", "tool"], "impact": 175.3, "impact_structure_formation": 15.5, "cost": 4, "value_ratio": 43.8, "n_models": 14, "n_models_structure_formation": 2, "n_gaps": 14, "effort_counts": {"medium": 12, "large": 2}, "severity_counts": {"degrades_precision": 7, "minor": 1, "blocks_key_observables": 6}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1909_04072_mirror_star_dissipative_mirror_baryon_dm_v1", "model_name": "Mirror-star dissipative mirror-baryon dark matter", "arxiv": "1909.04072", "score": 37.2, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No released code implements the SM capture/self-capture rate and the captured-nugget thermal structure (ionization, opacity, temperature across optically thin/thick regimes), which is the step converting stellar profiles and epsilon into observable luminosities.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the paper's capture and nugget thermal-balance equations as an open-source module taking MESA-style profiles, ISM density, and epsilon as inputs and returning nugget size, temperature, and opacity, validated against the paper's benchmark luminosities and >100-light-year reach."}, {"model_id": "1009_5870_kev_sterile_neutrino_warm_dm_v1", "model_name": "Single keV sterile-neutrino warm dark matter", "arxiv": "1009.5870", "score": 31.0, "severity": "minor", "description": "No detector response and background model exists for the beta-endpoint capture signature: the card computes the ideal capture rate and line position but notes that target activity, energy resolution, and backgrounds were not modeled, so laboratory sensitivity cannot be quantified.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a beta-spectrum endpoint simulation (KATRIN/PTOLEMY-style response convolution with target activity and resolution parameters for tritium and 106Ru) and derive projected sensitivity contours in (m_4, |V_e4|^2)."}, {"model_id": "1908_03559_freeze_twin_electron_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Freeze-twin electron and positron dark matter", "arxiv": "1908.03559", "score": 31, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No supernova-cooling likelihood or recast exists for the twin sector: existing dark-photon SN1987A cooling bounds do not include the twin-electron pair-production and trapping channels of this model, so the epsilon-m_gamma_prime cooling region is only a qualitative overlay.", "proposed_resolution": "Adapt an existing dark-photon supernova energy-loss calculation (Chang-Essig-McDermott-style, including finite-temperature mixing and trapping) to add twin-electron final states, and publish the resulting exclusion contour as a reusable likelihood in the epsilon-m_gamma_prime plane."}, {"model_id": "2312_15016_lepton_number_scalar_capture_dm_v1", "model_name": "Lepton-number-two ultralight scalar dark matter for neutrinoless double beta capture", "arxiv": "2312.15016", "score": 25.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No implemented forward model maps (m_phi, eta, g, rho_DM) to the scalar-capture rate and effective 0nubb half-life per isotope: the primary paper gives only a benchmark 136Xe scaling estimate, and the nuclear-matrix-element dependence is not encoded anywhere runnable.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the paper's capture-rate formulas as a small numerical code that takes published 0nubb nuclear matrix element tables (QRPA/shell-model values for 136Xe, 76Ge, 100Mo) and detector energy resolution, outputting half-life versus (m_phi, eta, g) for each isotope."}, {"model_id": "2111_12712_dark_baryon_scalar_mediator_m1_v1", "model_name": "Dark baryon model with right-handed scalar mediator Model 1", "arxiv": "2111.12712", "score": 24, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No public code computes the in-medium hyperon dark-decay emissivity in a proto-neutron star for this model; the SN1987A bound is applied only via the analytic L_d < 3e52 erg/s criterion with unmodeled in-medium rates.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement in-medium hyperon abundances and dark-decay widths on public proto-neutron-star simulation profiles (e.g. Garching-style models) and apply the Raffelt luminosity criterion, packaged as a reusable SN1987A cooling module for dark-baryon operators."}, {"model_id": "1804_01418_self_interacting_bosonic_dm_core_v1", "model_name": "Self-interacting bosonic dark matter core in neutron stars", "arxiv": "1804.01418", "score": 24.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The dark-core mass fraction is an assumed benchmark: no capture/formation/population model exists to predict which neutron stars carry a dark core of a given fraction, so constraints cannot be converted into bounds on underlying particle parameters.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive the dark-core mass fraction from the formation channels the paper sketches (neutron-to-DM conversion, bremsstrahlung production, accretion) as a function of m_D and sigma_D, and couple it to a neutron-star population synthesis model to predict the fraction distribution across observed pulsars and merger events."}, {"model_id": "2111_12712_dark_baryon_scalar_mediator_m2_v1", "model_name": "Dark baryon model with scalar mediator Model 2", "arxiv": "2111.12712", "score": 23, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No public code computes the in-medium hyperon dark-decay emissivity in a proto-neutron star for this model; the SN1987A bound is applied only via the analytic L_d < 3e52 erg/s criterion with unmodeled in-medium rates.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement in-medium hyperon abundances and dark-decay widths on public proto-neutron-star simulation profiles (e.g. Garching-style models) and apply the Raffelt luminosity criterion, packaged as a reusable SN1987A cooling module for dark-baryon operators."}, {"model_id": "1701_08750_nonabelian_goldstone_absorption_dm_v1", "model_name": "Non-Abelian Goldstone absorption dark matter", "arxiv": "1701.08750", "score": 23, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No likelihood or systematic recast exists for the combined cosmological and stellar-cooling bounds on the Goldstone coupling scale (likelihood_available is 'no', recasting_needed is 'yes'), so the constraint overlay on the absorption signal is only qualitative.", "proposed_resolution": "Recast published stellar-cooling (red giant, horizontal branch, supernova) and overproduction limits into the (m_pi, Lambda) plane for each choice of flavor generator, and package them as a simple bound-overlay likelihood alongside the absorption-rate prediction."}, {"model_id": "2111_12712_dark_baryon_vector_mediator_m3_v1", "model_name": "Dark baryon model with vector mediator Model 3", "arxiv": "2111.12712", "score": 22, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "No public code computes the in-medium hyperon dark-decay emissivity in a proto-neutron star for this model; the SN1987A bound is applied only via the analytic L_d < 3e52 erg/s criterion with unmodeled in-medium rates.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement in-medium hyperon abundances and dark-decay widths on public proto-neutron-star simulation profiles (e.g. Garching-style models) and apply the Raffelt luminosity criterion, packaged as a reusable SN1987A cooling module for dark-baryon operators."}, {"model_id": "1502_00715_gauge_mediated_q_ball_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Gauge-mediated Q-ball dark matter", "arxiv": "1502.00715", "score": 21.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "The neutron-star survival constraint on stable baryonic Q-balls, including the U(1)-breaking A-term suppression of Q-ball growth argued in rel_1912_06993, has no reusable implementation mapping (Q, M_F, m_3/2, A-term) to allowed/excluded regions.", "proposed_resolution": "Derive and code the neutron-star capture rate, neutron absorption rate, and A-term-modified growth equation from the related analysis as a parameterized module returning a survival-time bound versus Q-ball charge and A-term strength."}], "rank_impact": 22, "rank_value": 21, "rank_structure_formation": 25}
{"project": "A stellar-stream perturbation likelihood", "theme": "Stellar-stream perturbation likelihood", "deliverable": "A likelihood from subhalo population predictions to observed stream density/track perturbations (GD-1, Pal 5, Rubin-era samples), usable by any model that predicts a subhalo mass function.", "gap_types": ["likelihood", "simulation", "tool"], "impact": 125.1, "impact_structure_formation": 64.8, "cost": 9.6, "value_ratio": 13.0, "n_models": 7, "n_models_structure_formation": 3, "n_gaps": 7, "effort_counts": {"large": 3, "medium": 2, "major_program": 1, "small": 1}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 4, "degrades_precision": 2, "blocks_all_observables": 1}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "2205_02255_high_fa_qcd_axion_pbh_ucmh_v1", "model_name": "High-decay-constant QCD axion dark matter with PBH-seeded UCMHs", "arxiv": "2205.02255", "score": 33, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "UCMH growth around PBH seeds and their tidal disruption into axion streams in the Galactic potential are modeled only with semi-analytic profiles and an assumed encounter rate; no simulation-calibrated model of stream density enhancement and Earth-encounter statistics exists.", "proposed_resolution": "Run N-body simulations of PBH-seeded minihalo secondary accretion and subsequent tidal stripping along Milky Way orbits, and fit a stream density and encounter-rate model as a function of M_PBH, f_PBH, and orbital parameters."}, {"model_id": "2305_03756_nonperiodic_alp_fragmentation_dm_v1", "model_name": "Fragmenting non-periodic-potential axion-like dark matter", "arxiv": "2305.03756", "score": 26, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No event-level likelihood exists for dense-minihalo encounters with stellar streams (GD-1-like gaps) or pulsar-timing arrays for this model; the card frames both channels as qualitative prospects with encounter-rate and population modeling absent.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend existing GD-1 subhalo-impact inference frameworks and PTA Doppler/Shapiro static-limit searches to the model's minihalo mass function and density profiles, folding in the encounter-rate calculation from the predicted halo population."}, {"model_id": "2203_11935_vector_wave_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Vector wave dark matter in the nonrelativistic Schrödinger-Poisson limit", "arxiv": "2203.11935", "score": 25, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No likelihood exists for vector wave dark matter against dwarf-galaxy core, stellar-stream heating, or substructure data, and the lowest-energy vector soliton is density-degenerate with the scalar case, so scalar fuzzy-DM bounds cannot be recast without vector-specific (spin/polarization and multi-component) corrections.", "proposed_resolution": "Recast existing scalar fuzzy-DM dwarf-core and stream-heating likelihoods by replacing the scalar core-halo relation and granule statistics with the vector-calibrated versions from gap_2, and add spin/polarization-sensitive observables to break the scalar-vector density degeneracy."}, {"model_id": "1707_03829_dissipative_dark_electromagnetism_v1", "model_name": "Dissipative dark electromagnetism model", "arxiv": "1707.03829", "score": 23.0, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No likelihood connects the predicted compact collapsed dark substructures to data; the card's caveat notes no microlensing (or other compact-object) likelihood was run, and con_self_scattering_dao_window has likelihood_available: no with recasting needed.", "proposed_resolution": "Once a collapsed-object mass function exists (gap_1), recast it through existing compact-object constraint machinery: microlensing survey likelihoods, stellar-stream perturbation likelihoods, and strong-lensing substructure likelihoods parameterized by object mass and compactness."}, {"model_id": "2101_11007_post_inflationary_ultralight_axion_string_dm_v1", "model_name": "Post-inflationary ultralight axion string dark matter", "arxiv": "2101.11007", "score": 23, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "Axion-string network simulations cannot reach the cosmologically relevant log(m_r/H) ~ 60-70, so the string tension, axion emission spectrum, and GW spectrum for this ultralight post-inflationary scenario all rest on a contested large-log extrapolation, and no public emulator of the emission/GW spectra as functions of (f_a, m_a, log) exists.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend adaptive-mesh global-string lattice simulations (AMReX-based codes of the Gorghetto/Buschmann type) to larger logs, quantify scaling violations, and release an emulator of the axion emission spectrum and dOmega_gw/df parameterized by log(m_r/H), f_a, and domain-wall number for downstream likelihood use."}, {"model_id": "2303_04287_vector_coherent_oscillation_curvaton_v1", "model_name": "Vector coherent-oscillation dark matter with curvaton-generated curvature perturbations", "arxiv": "2303.04287", "score": 22, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The paper's viable-region contours exist only as figures; no reusable scan code maps (m_A, H_inf, R_A, Gamma_chi, kinetic-function exponent) to Omega_A, isocurvature power, and anisotropy amplitude, so the registry cannot re-evaluate the allowed region or extend it to new data.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the paper's analytic abundance and perturbation formulae in a small public scan package (Python) that reproduces the quoted m_A = 1e-21 eV to 1 eV window and H_inf/R_A boundary, exposing the derived isocurvature and g_* amplitudes for downstream likelihoods."}, {"model_id": "1109_2164_oscillating_asymmetric_dark_matter_fermion_v1", "model_name": "Oscillating asymmetric dark matter (fermion variant)", "arxiv": "1109.2164", "score": 21.5, "severity": "blocks_all_observables", "description": "No public solver exists for the coupled oscillation-plus-annihilation evolution of fermionic asymmetric dark matter: a density-matrix/Boltzmann system tracking Y_particle and Y_antiparticle with X=2 mass mixing (Delta m), large annihilation, and elastic-scattering decoherence from freeze-out to today; the paper's own integration was released with no code artifact.", "proposed_resolution": "Implement the paper's coupled density-matrix Boltzmann equations as a public Python/C module parameterized by (m_1, Delta m, <sigma v>, initial asymmetry, decoherence rate), validated against the paper's 10 GeV and 1000 GeV benchmark exclusions, and expose the anti-DM fraction history as output for downstream likelihoods."}], "rank_impact": 23, "rank_value": 23, "rank_structure_formation": 21}
{"project": "Nonlinear-structure emulators for non-CDM cosmologies", "theme": "Nonlinear-structure emulator", "deliverable": "Emulators mapping modified linear spectra to nonlinear power, halo mass functions and profiles, trained on the simulation campaign above.", "gap_types": ["calibration", "likelihood", "simulation"], "impact": 97.8, "impact_structure_formation": 61.6, "cost": 11.9, "value_ratio": 8.2, "n_models": 7, "n_models_structure_formation": 5, "n_gaps": 7, "effort_counts": {"large": 5, "medium": 1, "major_program": 1}, "severity_counts": {"degrades_precision": 4, "blocks_key_observables": 2, "blocks_all_observables": 1}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "1906_00010_vector_portal_hidden_sector_emde_dm_v1", "model_name": "Vector-portal hidden-sector dark matter with an early matter-dominated era", "arxiv": "1906.00010", "score": 31.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "Microhalo survival and gravitational heating at reheating dominate the boost-factor uncertainty: the boost is highly sensitive to the free-streaming cutoff and to how many prompt microhalos survive, and no simulation suite spans the (T_dom/T_RH, lambda_fs, m_X/m_Zprime) space needed to calibrate this beyond the paper's bracketing procedures.", "proposed_resolution": "Run a suite of high-resolution N-body simulations of microhalo formation and post-reheating disruption across a grid of EMDE durations and cutoff scales, and fit an emulator for the annihilation boost factor B_0 and its uncertainty band."}, {"model_id": "astro_ph0101524_resonant_sterile_neutrino_dm_v1", "model_name": "Resonantly produced sterile neutrino dark matter", "arxiv": "astro-ph/0101524", "score": 30, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public Ly-alpha flux-power likelihood or emulator accepts arbitrary resonant nonthermal sterile-neutrino distributions; the RPSN hydrodynamical grid covers only benchmark distribution shapes, and out-of-grid f_s(p) require new simulations (card assumption rpsn-hydrodynamical-grid, likelihood_available: no).", "proposed_resolution": "Build a Ly-alpha flux-power emulator trained on hydrodynamical simulations spanning generalized nonthermal transfer-function shapes (e.g. the alpha-beta-gamma parameterization) and wrap it with the BOSS/eBOSS flux-power data as a public likelihood, so computed f_s(p) can be constrained without per-model simulations."}, {"model_id": "1708_09406_general_interacting_dark_sector_v1", "model_name": "General interacting dark sector with dark matter and dark radiation", "arxiv": "1708.09406", "score": 23, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "Nonlinear structure formation for IDS is uncalibrated (simulation_calibrated: no; halo and subhalo effects unknown), so weak-lensing and cluster-count constraints on the S8-suppression regime rely on nonlinear prescriptions never validated for DAO-like IDS spectra.", "proposed_resolution": "Run N-body simulations seeded with IDS initial power spectra across the (Gamma_0, f, Delta_N_fluid) posterior region and fit a nonlinear boost or emulator (halofit-style correction) for use in weak-lensing and cluster likelihoods."}, {"model_id": "2103_07625_alp_string_wall_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Axion-like particle dark matter from N>1 string-wall annihilation", "arxiv": "2103.07625", "score": 21.5, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No public simulation or calibrated emulator exists for biased N>1 ALP string-wall networks that outputs the network scaling parameters, annihilation time, GW spectrum normalization, and the emitted ALP momentum spectrum needed for the abundance and dark-radiation split.", "proposed_resolution": "Run lattice field-theory simulations of Z_N string-wall networks with a vacuum bias term (extending Hiramatsu-Kawasaki-Saikawa-type domain-wall simulation codes), calibrate the area parameter, annihilation time versus epsilon_b, and the ALP and GW emission spectra, and release the results as fitting functions or an emulator over (V, v, N, epsilon_b, m_a)."}, {"model_id": "hep-ph9910349_two_neutrino_hot_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Two-neutrino hot dark matter with a four-neutrino mass pattern", "arxiv": "hep-ph/9910349", "score": 21.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "Cluster-abundance and void statistics for the Omega_m=1, Omega_nu=0.2 two-neutrino CHDM configuration are not simulation-calibrated; existing nuCDM emulators and halo-mass-function fits are calibrated on low-Omega_nu LCDM cosmologies and do not cover this regime.", "proposed_resolution": "Run a small suite of neutrino-inclusive N-body simulations (e.g. Gadget-4 with linear-response or particle neutrinos) at the CHDM parameter point to calibrate the halo mass function and void statistics near 10 h^-1 Mpc, validating the claimed cluster-overproduction reduction of two versus one hot species."}, {"model_id": "hep-ph9709492_supersymmetric_q_ball_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Supersymmetric Q-ball dark matter from condensate fragmentation", "arxiv": "hep-ph/9709492", "score": 19.0, "severity": "blocks_all_observables", "description": "No public simulation or calibrated semi-analytic pipeline converts an Affleck-Dine flat-direction condensate (given initial charge density and potential shape) into a Q-ball charge distribution; the paper relies on linear-instability estimates and identifies the nonlinear fragmentation as unsolved future work.", "proposed_resolution": "Run 3D lattice simulations of a complex scalar with MSSM flat-direction potentials (adapting a public lattice code such as CosmoLattice or GABE to conserved-charge initial conditions), scan initial charge density and potential flatness, and fit the resulting Q-ball charge distribution into a reusable semi-analytic emulator."}, {"model_id": "2307_07228_coupled_sfdm_ede_v1", "model_name": "Coupled scalar-field dark matter and early-dark-energy model", "arxiv": "2307.07228", "score": 19.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "The DES-Y3 S8 comparison relies on linear-to-nonlinear growth modeling that is uncalibrated for coupled SFDM-EDE (the card records halo/subhalo mass-function effects as unknown and simulation_calibrated no), so weak-lensing-scale predictions carry an unquantified nonlinear modeling error.", "proposed_resolution": "Calibrate a nonlinear matter-power prescription for this model, either by running N-body simulations with the modified linear input spectra and scale-dependent growth to refit a halofit/HMcode-style correction, or by validating that standard emulators remain accurate for the small coupled-sector departures within the posterior."}], "rank_impact": 24, "rank_value": 25, "rank_structure_formation": 23}
{"project": "A strong-lensing substructure likelihood", "theme": "Strong-lensing substructure likelihood", "deliverable": "Flux-ratio and gravitational-imaging likelihoods for suppressed or enhanced substructure, packaged for arbitrary transfer functions.", "gap_types": ["emulator", "likelihood", "tool"], "impact": 78.4, "impact_structure_formation": 78.4, "cost": 8.6, "value_ratio": 9.1, "n_models": 4, "n_models_structure_formation": 4, "n_gaps": 5, "effort_counts": {"large": 4, "medium": 1}, "severity_counts": {"blocks_key_observables": 4, "degrades_precision": 1}, "top_models": [{"model_id": "2203_10100_inflationary_dark_photon_proca_stars_v1", "model_name": "Inflation-produced dark photon dark matter with Proca-star substructure", "arxiv": "2203.10100", "score": 43, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No survey-recast machinery or likelihood exists to convert the predicted soliton/compact-halo population (M_s, M_h, density profiles) into pulsar-timing, microlensing, photometric microlensing, or extragalactic strong-lensing constraints, and finite-size, fuzzy-envelope lenses are not covered by point-mass PBH limits.", "proposed_resolution": "Build a population-to-observable recast: fold the substructure mass function into finite-size-lens magnification maps for Subaru/HSC and OGLE microlensing likelihoods, PTA Doppler/Shapiro delay statistics, and strong-lensing flux-ratio/perturbation likelihoods, with survey selection functions parameterized in (m, H_I)."}, {"model_id": "2306_16532_one_to_one_mixed_sterile_neutrino_dm_v1", "model_name": "One-to-one resonantly produced mixed sterile-neutrino dark matter", "arxiv": "2306.16532", "score": 30.0, "severity": "degrades_precision", "description": "Ly-alpha forest and strong-lensing constraints for this model rely on thermal-WDM-calibrated pipelines, but the resonant spectra are explicitly nonthermal and mixed with CDM, so no emulator or likelihood covers the model-specific T(k) shapes (thermal-WDM equivalent masses are only approximate per the card).", "proposed_resolution": "Extend existing Ly-alpha flux-power emulators and lensing substructure likelihoods from the thermal-WDM axis to a generalized suppressed-transfer-function parameterization (e.g. {alpha, beta, gamma} or {f, k_half}) that spans mixed cold-plus-warm spectra, validated with a small set of hydro simulations of representative mixed models."}, {"model_id": "2302_10286_two_body_superfluid_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Two-body interacting superfluid dark matter around black holes", "arxiv": "2302.10286", "score": 21, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No ray-tracing/imaging forward model exists that takes the two-body superfluid n=1 Lane-Emden density profile around an SMBH and predicts photon-sphere shifts, shadow size, or strong-lensing deflections.", "proposed_resolution": "Extend an existing black-hole ray-tracing code (e.g. GYOTO or ipole) with a metric solved for the black hole plus the P_2 superfluid mass distribution, parameterized by (m, a, rho_0, M_BH), and output shadow/lensing observables on a model-parameter grid."}, {"model_id": "2302_10286_three_body_superfluid_dark_matter_v1", "model_name": "Three-body interacting superfluid dark matter around black holes", "arxiv": "2302.10286", "score": 19, "severity": "blocks_key_observables", "description": "No likelihood exists comparing the predicted three-body superfluid black-hole-environment observables to EHT shadow, strong-lensing, or GW data; the card records likelihood_available: no and the route as planned.", "proposed_resolution": "Once the forward models exist, wrap published EHT shadow-size posteriors (Sgr A*, M87*) and GW upper limits into a likelihood over (m, Lambda, rho_0, M_BH), marginalizing over black-hole spin and inclination."}], "rank_impact": 25, "rank_value": 24, "rank_structure_formation": 20}